698
FXUS65 KABQ 211842
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1242 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHEN A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD
FRONT VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST, BUT NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NM WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.8 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VERY
LIKELY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THERE WILL BE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WESTERN NM. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES, DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB FROM TODAY'S
READINGS. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS FROM PLUMMETING LIKE IN PAST DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO
PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY GET A BIT MORE RAMBUNCTIOUS. A FEW MODELS ARE
HINTING INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SHEAR (~50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR) SO IF ANY STORM DOES DEVELOP IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY, IT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THE NM/TX
BORDER, AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY INTO TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF FALLING
FROM THE SKY AS WELL!
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT FRIDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW THE LOW
TAKING A SHARP RIGHT TURN AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN NM. OVERALL, THIS MEANS IT WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER
FOR THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW TO DIMINISH, AND THUS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING,
SURFACE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR BOTH SUN AND MON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-FRI. LIGHT, NON-WETTING,
PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
WESTERN NM, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON THURSDAY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP SATURDAY, THEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUN AND MON. DAYTIME RH VALUES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FOR FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 25% BOTH SUN AND MON
AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 72 46 66 / 0 0 10 30
DULCE........................... 27 71 37 63 / 0 0 20 50
CUBA............................ 35 70 43 65 / 0 5 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 31 72 40 64 / 0 10 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 37 70 43 62 / 0 10 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 31 72 40 68 / 0 10 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 36 72 41 68 / 0 10 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 44 72 49 72 / 0 10 20 10
DATIL........................... 38 69 43 66 / 0 10 20 5
RESERVE......................... 39 77 42 72 / 0 10 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 80 46 76 / 0 20 10 0
CHAMA........................... 29 65 34 57 / 0 0 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 67 46 64 / 0 0 10 30
PECOS........................... 40 69 43 65 / 0 0 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 28 59 32 55 / 0 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 64 28 59 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 29 68 37 65 / 0 0 5 20
MORA............................ 36 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 36 74 43 72 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 41 69 45 67 / 0 5 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 70 43 69 / 0 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 73 52 73 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 74 51 74 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 75 49 75 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 73 49 74 / 0 5 20 20
BELEN........................... 40 75 46 79 / 0 10 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 43 75 48 75 / 0 5 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 74 45 77 / 0 5 20 10
CORRALES........................ 43 76 49 75 / 0 5 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 74 46 78 / 0 5 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 44 72 49 71 / 0 0 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 75 49 75 / 0 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 45 77 51 80 / 0 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 69 46 68 / 0 5 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 43 70 48 69 / 0 5 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 72 44 70 / 0 5 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 74 40 72 / 0 5 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 69 44 66 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 41 71 46 70 / 0 5 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 72 45 70 / 0 5 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 76 53 74 / 0 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 45 72 49 67 / 0 10 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 34 69 39 66 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 32 72 39 69 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 31 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 72 42 65 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 39 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 36 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 40 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 79 47 73 / 0 0 5 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 78 46 75 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 44 80 52 76 / 0 0 0 30
PORTALES........................ 43 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 81 50 75 / 0 0 5 30
ROSWELL......................... 43 82 52 80 / 0 0 5 30
PICACHO......................... 43 82 52 79 / 0 10 10 30
ELK............................. 42 82 50 75 / 0 10 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page