206
FXUS65 KABQ 220650
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1250 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHEN A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
A CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR DAYS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, AND
IS POISED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL
USHER IN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE A MODIFIED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO
SEEP OUR WAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS
AND EVENTUALLY THE ONSET OF VIRGA AND WEAK, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS BY
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NM BEFORE THIS SPOTTY
ACTIVITY FILLS IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
INVERTED-V TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES WILL YIELD HIGH DCAPE
THAT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS RATHER THAN APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE
HRRR MODEL IS LATCHING ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH A COUPLE OF NOTABLE
MESO-HIGHS ALREADY ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE (GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH) OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, AND
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE TO AS MANY AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE LOW WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW IS SLATED TO MOVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN
NM, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
POTENT DRY SLOT WOULD ALREADY BE OVERTAKING WESTERN NM BY
THURSDAY, SHOVING THE BEST MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WHERE PWATS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WINDS
ALOFT WOULD BE STRONGER (15-30 KT AT 700 MB), MIXING DOWN AND
PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BEING FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THIS STRONGER FLOW
WILL ADD A HEALTHY DOSE OF SHEAR (40-50 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER),
AND INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS
THAT COULD TURN STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE ANYWHERE FROM THE RIO
GRANDE EASTWARD AND ALSO INTO THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY
WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS, RUNNING A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE LOW WILL TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE NM-CO BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING RIGHT AND SLOWING DOWN OVER NORTHEAST NM INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE NORTHEAST WITH REMAINING AREAS TURNING
MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES WITH
A MORE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, AND SURFACE
BREEZES WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER (5-15 MPH OVER MOST ZONES).
THE LOW MOVES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
OK AND TX ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO NM
FOR A BRIEF TIME. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW
DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES.
HOWEVER, THE NOSE OF THE STOUT NORTHERN PACIFIC JET WILL BE
ENTERING THE WESTERN COAST STATES LATE ON SATURDAY, BRINGING AN
UPPER TROUGH INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME PRECIP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT NM WILL ONLY RECEIVE THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALOFT AND RESULTANT BUMP UP IN THE WINDS ON SUNDAY.
FORTUNATELY, SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY TAME AT THIS POINT WITH PEAK
GUSTS LIKELY ONLY REACHING 30-35 MPH IN HIGHLAND ZONES. THE STIFF
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
BREEZINESS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR NM. THE LEADING ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC JET WILL SEND A VORT LOBE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS LATE MONDAY, POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD RELAX A BIT AS IT VEERS MORE NORTHWESTERLY GOING INTO
TUESDAY, AND A DRY COLD FRONT WOULD BE POISED TO INFILTRATE THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING FAINT MOISTURE
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. THESE
SHOWERS WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL,
BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED IN WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (INCLUDING KGUP AND KGNT) WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AIRPORTS FOR A BRIEF TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOOMING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCANT SHOWERS TO WESTERN NM
TODAY AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NM AND INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
WITH A FEW FLURRIES ON HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. HOWEVER, APPRECIABLE
WETTING OR SOAKING RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND SPOTTY,
NAMELY COMING FROM A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SECONDLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL REACH 30-35 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DWINDLING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM. AFTER
A DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR, AND TRANQUIL DAY ON SATURDAY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER
WINDS IN EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. OVERALL,
WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MARGINALLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 15-25% RANGE EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 72 46 67 40 / 0 20 40 0
DULCE........................... 71 37 64 30 / 0 20 60 10
CUBA............................ 70 43 65 34 / 10 20 50 5
GALLUP.......................... 72 40 64 32 / 20 20 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 70 43 64 33 / 20 20 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 40 69 33 / 20 20 30 0
QUEMADO......................... 72 41 68 33 / 30 20 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 72 49 72 40 / 20 20 20 0
DATIL........................... 69 43 67 34 / 20 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 77 42 72 34 / 20 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 80 46 77 38 / 30 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 65 34 58 29 / 0 20 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 46 64 39 / 0 30 50 10
PECOS........................... 69 43 65 36 / 0 20 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 42 64 34 / 0 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 59 32 55 27 / 0 20 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 28 61 24 / 0 20 30 10
TAOS............................ 68 37 67 33 / 0 20 30 10
MORA............................ 69 39 64 32 / 0 20 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 74 43 72 37 / 0 20 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 69 45 67 40 / 0 30 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 43 69 37 / 0 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 52 73 45 / 0 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 51 75 43 / 0 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 49 77 42 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 49 75 43 / 10 20 20 5
BELEN........................... 75 46 78 39 / 10 20 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 48 76 41 / 0 30 30 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 45 77 38 / 10 20 20 5
CORRALES........................ 76 49 76 42 / 10 20 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 74 46 77 40 / 10 20 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 72 49 71 42 / 0 30 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 49 75 42 / 10 20 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 77 51 81 44 / 10 20 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 46 67 38 / 0 20 40 5
TIJERAS......................... 70 48 69 40 / 0 20 40 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 72 44 70 35 / 0 20 40 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 72 32 / 0 20 40 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 44 67 37 / 0 20 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 46 70 37 / 5 20 40 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 72 45 70 37 / 5 20 40 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 53 74 45 / 5 20 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 72 49 67 43 / 5 20 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 69 39 66 35 / 0 0 10 20
RATON........................... 72 39 68 35 / 0 0 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 74 38 71 36 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 42 66 36 / 0 10 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 73 43 70 43 / 0 0 10 20
ROY............................. 73 43 69 38 / 0 0 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 79 46 76 42 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 47 73 42 / 0 5 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 46 74 45 / 0 0 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 80 52 76 50 / 0 0 40 20
PORTALES........................ 80 51 76 50 / 0 0 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 50 75 45 / 0 5 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 82 52 78 50 / 0 5 30 20
PICACHO......................... 82 52 77 46 / 0 20 40 10
ELK............................. 82 50 75 45 / 0 20 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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