719
FXUS65 KABQ 221920
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
120 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AN EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, WITH
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE PACIFIC LOW IS MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CA PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT, BUT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER AZ/NM AND A GRADUAL TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONGOING. THE INITIAL RESULT WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. BY
THURSDAY, MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR GETTING
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE UPTREND
THURSDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION ACROSS NM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
40-50KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS AND WE'RE INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE VERY LOW. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE SETUP, CLIMATOLOGY
FOR OCTOBER, AND AIRMASS IS STORMS TO PRODUCE A LOT OF SMALL HAIL
WITH HAIL ACCUMULATION. THE AREA WITH RELATIVE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY, NAMELY ROOSEVELT COUNTY WHERE GULF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION-COOLING OF THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ON THURSDAY THAT WILL BE
0-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THERE IS SMALL BUT NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT TO ADD SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SHOWER AND STORMS FRIDAY
WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW MAY LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW 10KFT AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. LOWER POPS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER NEAR
THE TX/OK BORDERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN MORE ON FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE MOST AREAS. WARMING IS
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE
DEPARTING PACIFIC LOW ON SATURDAY AND IS REPLACED BY INCREASING
WESTERLIES ON SUNDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FROM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING WARMING WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NM, BUT A NOTABLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COOL-OFF EASTERN NM AND BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR
CIGS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WITH GOOD CHANCES
(30-50%) TO IMPACT TERMINALS. LOW PROBABILITIES (10-20%) OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG THE CO BORDER.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
AVERAGE MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDTIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON SUNDAY DUE DAYTIME MIXING OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RELATIVELY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM FROM EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 67 40 61 / 20 50 5 0
DULCE........................... 36 64 31 60 / 20 60 20 10
CUBA............................ 43 66 34 58 / 20 40 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 42 65 32 61 / 20 10 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 44 64 33 58 / 30 10 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 42 69 33 62 / 30 20 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 44 68 33 60 / 20 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 71 40 63 / 20 20 0 5
DATIL........................... 45 67 34 60 / 20 10 0 5
RESERVE......................... 44 72 33 68 / 20 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 49 76 38 73 / 20 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 58 30 55 / 20 70 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 64 39 57 / 20 40 20 20
PECOS........................... 44 66 37 58 / 20 50 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 64 35 55 / 20 40 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 35 56 27 46 / 10 50 30 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 61 24 52 / 5 50 20 40
TAOS............................ 38 67 34 58 / 20 40 20 20
MORA............................ 40 64 32 56 / 5 40 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 44 72 37 65 / 20 30 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 47 66 40 59 / 20 30 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 69 37 62 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 73 45 65 / 20 30 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 75 43 67 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 77 42 69 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 75 43 67 / 20 30 5 5
BELEN........................... 47 78 39 68 / 20 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 76 42 68 / 20 30 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 76 38 68 / 20 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 76 42 68 / 20 30 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 77 40 68 / 20 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 71 43 63 / 20 30 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 75 42 67 / 20 30 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 53 81 44 72 / 20 20 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 68 38 59 / 20 30 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 47 69 40 61 / 20 30 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 70 35 61 / 20 30 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 71 32 63 / 20 40 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 66 37 58 / 20 40 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 70 38 61 / 30 40 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 69 37 63 / 30 40 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 73 45 67 / 30 40 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 66 42 61 / 20 40 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 66 36 54 / 5 30 20 20
RATON........................... 39 69 37 58 / 5 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 39 70 38 61 / 5 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 64 36 58 / 5 30 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 42 69 44 63 / 5 20 20 10
ROY............................. 42 68 39 63 / 5 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 45 73 42 71 / 5 30 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 71 42 67 / 5 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 72 45 71 / 5 30 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 75 50 74 / 10 30 20 10
PORTALES........................ 51 76 50 75 / 10 30 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 73 45 73 / 10 30 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 53 77 48 77 / 10 30 20 0
PICACHO......................... 53 75 45 73 / 10 40 10 0
ELK............................. 50 75 44 71 / 10 40 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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