395
FXUS65 KABQ 230805
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
205 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EASTERN NM
WITH HAIL, HIGH WINDS, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A 569DM H5 LOW TRAVERSING NORTHERN AZ TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE NM/CO BORDER TONIGHT THEN DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NM THRU
FRIDAY. A MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL TREND PWATS
NEAR +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. A 70 TO 80KT UPPER LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT IN THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL HELP TO IMPROVE ASCENT OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THRU MID
MORNING BEFORE A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITHIN
CENTRAL NM. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO BACKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGH BULK SHEAR >45KT.
A FEW STRONG CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND SPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
LARGE 'MARGINAL RISK' OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM. MEANWHILE, A
STRONG DRY SLOT WILL SURGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAPIDLY FALLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS AVERAGE 20 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER EASTERN NM LATE THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF WITH DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW REACHING THE CAPROCK. AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM OVER NORTHWEST NM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW AND OVER
NORTHEAST NM WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THE H5 LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NM FRIDAY WHILE
WEAKENING TO NEAR 573MB. A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND PWATS FALL BELOW 0.5" ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST NM. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL SEE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BUILDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE H5 LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR TUCUMCARI WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO WEST
TX THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDING OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FLATTEN SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 160KT JET MAX APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FLIRT
WITH NORTHEAST NM BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM LOOK TO REMAIN TRANQUIL AND DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR 5F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NM AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF RAIN AND ERRATIC WINDS THRU SUNRISE THEN MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO EASTERN NM THRU MID MORNING. A SECOND
ROUND OF SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 2PM NEAR THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS EASTERN NM THRU THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SANTA ROSA TO ROSWELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15-
25KT COMMON AT MANY TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM
THRU SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW 0.25"
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
IMPACT IN THIS PATTERN IS POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES ON MOST DAYS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 42 61 38 / 30 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 65 31 59 28 / 60 20 20 0
CUBA............................ 66 34 57 33 / 50 20 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 65 32 60 31 / 10 0 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 34 56 33 / 20 0 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 33 60 33 / 20 0 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 68 34 59 33 / 5 0 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 71 40 62 39 / 30 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 67 34 58 35 / 10 0 5 0
RESERVE......................... 72 34 67 33 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 39 73 38 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 60 30 54 28 / 60 30 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 39 56 38 / 60 30 30 5
PECOS........................... 65 36 58 34 / 50 30 30 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 35 53 32 / 40 30 40 10
RED RIVER....................... 55 28 45 25 / 40 30 50 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 24 51 20 / 30 30 50 10
TAOS............................ 67 35 58 30 / 40 30 40 10
MORA............................ 65 33 55 31 / 40 30 40 10
ESPANOLA........................ 72 38 64 35 / 50 40 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 66 40 58 38 / 50 30 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 37 61 36 / 50 30 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 46 64 44 / 40 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 42 66 42 / 30 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 41 68 41 / 30 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 44 66 43 / 20 10 5 0
BELEN........................... 78 39 68 39 / 30 10 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 42 67 41 / 40 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 39 67 38 / 40 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 76 42 68 41 / 30 20 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 77 40 67 40 / 40 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 72 43 63 41 / 40 20 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 43 66 42 / 30 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 80 44 71 43 / 30 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 39 58 37 / 40 20 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 69 40 60 39 / 40 20 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 36 61 35 / 40 20 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 71 33 63 33 / 40 20 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 36 58 36 / 40 20 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 37 61 37 / 40 10 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 38 63 36 / 50 10 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 44 67 42 / 50 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 42 60 38 / 50 10 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 37 53 34 / 30 30 30 10
RATON........................... 67 38 58 33 / 30 30 40 10
SPRINGER........................ 70 39 60 33 / 30 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 36 58 34 / 40 30 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 71 44 63 42 / 20 20 20 20
ROY............................. 68 40 63 38 / 30 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 73 44 71 42 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 41 68 41 / 30 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 44 71 43 / 30 20 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 75 50 74 47 / 40 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 75 51 75 46 / 40 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 44 73 45 / 30 10 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 77 49 76 47 / 40 20 5 5
PICACHO......................... 75 44 73 43 / 40 10 5 5
ELK............................. 75 44 71 39 / 50 20 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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