406
FXUS65 KABQ 231916
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
116 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EASTERN NM
WITH HAIL, HIGH WINDS, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS LOCATIONS IN
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10,000FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER, PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED FOR THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT IS
ENTERING WESTERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BUMPING UP AGAINST THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NM, THIS PROVIDES A SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE AXIS OF THIS LOW AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF IT ARE PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS AT 500MB, AND
FROM THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING, A CORRIDOR OF 50-60KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS OBSERVED BASED ON THIS. ALSO IN THE SOUNDING, A SLIGHT
INVERSION SITS JUST OVER 1000FT ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT ONCE
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS, SBCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG ARE
LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. THESE INGREDIENTS AGREE WITH THE CURRENT
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MODERATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND STORMS ARE
MORE FAVORED TO PRODUCE HIGH AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE LOWER
WBZ TEMPERATURE LEVEL. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM SHOULD LIKELY
DIMINISH BY 8-9PM, WITH SHOWERS REMAINING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST NM INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. ALONGSIDE THIS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST NM. CURRENTLY, THE CORE OF THE LOW IS LOOKING TO HOVER
MOSTLY ON TOP OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL STUNT ANY POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM SAVE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY, SO THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS VERY LOW. ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, REMNANT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND COMBINING WITH THE UPSLOPE
MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK TO DEVELOP RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF NOTE IS THAT SNOW LEVELS
ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE NEAR 9,500-10,000FT DURING THE TIME OF MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 0C AS WELL, SO GIVEN ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS, A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10,000FT ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. TODAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE BROUGHT OUT
4-6" ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH WITH THIS SNOW BEING
CONFINED TO THE PEAKS WITH ELSEWHERE GETTING AT MOST FLURRIES TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, WILL NOT GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY,
PROVIDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN TO BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON (10-20MPH). TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE (HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S) EXCEPT FOR ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM (HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S). A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEGINNING A COOLDOWN OF THE REGION. ANOTHER,
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO COOL DOWN EASTERN NM. THESE FRONTS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY TO MID WEEK, THOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH IS
CURRENTLY NOT CLEAR. ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT MID-WEEK ON THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS, SO AS IT STANDS, THE CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
OF NEXT WEEK'S PATTERN IS OUTLINED ABOVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
NM. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST LIKELY TERMINAL IMPACTS RANGE FROM
KLVS, KRTN, AND KSKX, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN SURROUNDING TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST NM THROUGH 06Z. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES. LLWS
APPEARS LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND AND AFTER 06Z FOR KTCC, WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NM, WHERE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL WETTING
PRECIP IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NM, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10,000FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. PRECIP CHANCES FALL TO NEAR 0 AFTER FRIDAY WITH A RETURN
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THRESHOLDS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO NOT BE MET
OUTSIDE OF VERY LOCAL INSTANCES AND FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR AT A TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 61 37 64 / 10 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 30 59 27 63 / 20 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 57 32 62 / 10 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 32 59 30 66 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 56 32 62 / 0 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 61 33 67 / 0 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 59 32 64 / 0 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 39 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 59 33 63 / 0 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 67 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 73 39 76 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 54 28 58 / 20 40 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 55 37 62 / 30 30 5 0
PECOS........................... 37 58 34 62 / 20 30 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 54 31 59 / 40 40 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 46 25 51 / 40 50 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 52 22 56 / 20 50 20 0
TAOS............................ 34 58 30 62 / 30 40 10 0
MORA............................ 33 56 31 59 / 20 40 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 37 63 35 68 / 30 30 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 59 37 62 / 20 30 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 61 35 65 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 65 43 67 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 67 42 70 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 69 42 72 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 67 42 70 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 39 69 40 71 / 5 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 68 40 72 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 68 39 70 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 68 41 72 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 68 40 70 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 63 40 67 / 10 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 67 41 71 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 72 44 74 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 59 36 62 / 20 20 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 40 61 38 63 / 10 10 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 61 35 64 / 20 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 63 33 65 / 20 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 59 35 60 / 20 10 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 61 37 63 / 10 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 63 36 64 / 5 5 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 68 42 67 / 10 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 61 38 61 / 20 5 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 36 55 34 59 / 20 30 20 5
RATON........................... 37 59 34 65 / 20 40 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 61 36 65 / 20 40 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 59 34 62 / 20 30 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 64 42 65 / 30 20 20 10
ROY............................. 39 64 39 64 / 30 30 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 44 72 44 70 / 10 20 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 68 42 67 / 10 10 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 72 43 68 / 5 10 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 49 74 46 70 / 10 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 50 76 46 70 / 10 10 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 74 45 70 / 10 5 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 77 47 74 / 10 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 46 73 42 71 / 10 5 0 0
ELK............................. 44 71 39 70 / 10 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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