747
FXUS65 KABQ 240821
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
221 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS LOCATIONS IN
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9,500FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A 569DM H5 LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NM THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS NEAR 0.50" BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ARE STILL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LATE OCTOBER. 700MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR +1C WITH 500MB TEMPS
NEAR -17C BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO LOCALIZED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW IS LIKELY
ABOVE 9500' WITH 2-5" EXPECTED (MAINLY ABOVE POPULATION AREAS).
CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH SLIGHT BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST NM THRU THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWEST. THE NAM12 SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE CAPROCK TO SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONGER CELLS BUT
SHEAR IS VERY MARGINAL. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TAPER OFF
THEN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM. THE LATEST
NBM CEILING PROBS SHOW A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF CLOUD DECKS BELOW 3KFT
AND A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 500FT. FOG PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 10%.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM AZ SATURDAY THEN CREST
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AREAWIDE
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. A GORGEOUS
LATE OCTOBER DAY IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS AN EXTENSIVE
140KT ZONAL JET STREAM SURGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 700-500MB
LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 35KT OVER NM. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER WEST TX AND OK BENEATH
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO TREND HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NM NEXT WEEK. A 200KT
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ENTERING THE WESTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN SEVERAL ALEUTIAN LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH RIDGING TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THRU NEXT WEEK BUT ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS
RISE ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO RE-ENTER EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A DRY SLOT MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHRA
TO END WITH CLEARING IN MOST AREAS THRU SUNRISE. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM WHERE THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY MVFR LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS RISEN TO BTWN
10 AND 20%. CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG TO THE
I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE THESE
CLOUDS WILL GROW INTO SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN NM THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
CLEARING WILL BE SLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AFTER SUNSET
WHILE SHRA/TS CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM THRU AT MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO WETTING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
FROM ANY DIRECT HITS. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9,500 FEET. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
BUT MIN HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 15%. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A COUPLE BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VENTILATION WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR BURNING OPERATIONS WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN
MOST AREAS MONDAY THRU AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 39 65 40 / 10 20 0 0
DULCE........................... 60 26 63 28 / 30 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 32 62 35 / 20 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 59 31 65 33 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 33 62 35 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 32 67 34 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 39 65 41 / 10 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 58 34 62 36 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 33 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 73 39 75 39 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 28 58 29 / 40 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 38 61 40 / 40 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 59 35 62 38 / 30 20 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 32 60 35 / 50 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 25 50 28 / 50 30 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 20 55 23 / 60 40 0 0
TAOS............................ 58 29 62 30 / 50 20 0 0
MORA............................ 57 31 60 34 / 60 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 63 35 68 36 / 40 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 38 62 41 / 30 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 35 65 37 / 20 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 44 67 46 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 40 70 43 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 39 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 41 70 43 / 20 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 68 39 70 38 / 20 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 40 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 37 70 37 / 20 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 40 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 39 70 39 / 20 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 62 41 67 43 / 20 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 41 71 43 / 20 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 72 44 73 43 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 37 62 39 / 20 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 39 63 41 / 20 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 34 64 35 / 20 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 31 65 33 / 20 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 35 61 38 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 36 63 38 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 36 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 42 67 44 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 38 61 42 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 55 36 60 35 / 20 20 0 0
RATON........................... 60 35 65 33 / 40 30 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 36 65 33 / 50 30 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 35 62 37 / 40 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 65 44 65 40 / 20 20 5 0
ROY............................. 64 39 65 36 / 40 30 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 71 44 70 38 / 20 30 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 41 67 43 / 10 20 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 44 69 40 / 10 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 75 46 70 45 / 10 20 20 0
PORTALES........................ 76 46 70 46 / 10 20 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 45 70 42 / 5 20 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 78 48 75 44 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 74 42 71 45 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 71 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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