013
FXUS65 KABQ 250555 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS BUT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK FROM
THIS MORNING. A 570DM H5 LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST CO EARLY TODAY
WILL DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. PWATS NEAR 0.50" BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ARE STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER. 700MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR +1C WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -17C BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO LOCALIZED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW IS LIKELY
ABOVE 9500' WITH 2-5" EXPECTED (MAINLY ABOVE POPULATION AREAS).
CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH SLIGHT BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST NM THRU THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWEST. THE NAM12 SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE CAPROCK TO SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONGER CELLS BUT
SHEAR IS VERY MARGINAL. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TAPER OFF
THEN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM. THE LATEST
NBM CEILING PROBS SHOW A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF CLOUD DECKS BELOW 3KFT
AND A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 500FT. FOG PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 10%.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM AZ SATURDAY THEN CREST
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AREAWIDE
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. A GORGEOUS
LATE OCTOBER DAY IS EXPECTED. CONTINUED COOL AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS AN EXTENSIVE
140KT ZONAL JET STREAM SURGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 700-500MB
LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 35KT OVER NM. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER WEST TX AND OK BENEATH
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO TREND HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NM NEXT WEEK. A 200KT
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ENTERING THE WESTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL HELP TO DEEPEN SEVERAL ALEUTIAN LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH RIDGING TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THRU NEXT WEEK BUT ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISE
ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TO RE-ENTER EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SHRA/TS OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT WILL TAPER OFF THRU SUNRISE WHILE
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CAPROCK OF EAST-CENTRAL NM. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM DIRECT HITS.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR
EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM TX INTO EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM KCAO TO KTCC, AND KCVN. THERE IS A
20-40% OF IFR CIGS RIGHT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. CONFIDENCE ON
LOW CIGS AT KROW WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW. VFR
WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS AFTER SUNRISE WITH SKC AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO WETTING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM ANY DIRECT HITS. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9,500 FEET. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL TAKE SHAPE BY SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE BUT MIN HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE
15%. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A COUPLE BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VENTILATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR BURNING OPERATIONS
WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THRU AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 65 39 68 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 26 64 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 32 63 35 67 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 62 35 65 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 67 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 33 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 39 65 41 71 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 35 62 36 69 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 75 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 59 30 61 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 61 40 65 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 62 38 65 / 20 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 60 36 63 / 20 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 50 29 53 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 20 55 22 59 / 50 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 62 30 66 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 31 60 34 65 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 35 68 35 71 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 62 41 66 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 64 36 69 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 68 47 71 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 70 42 74 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 72 40 76 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 70 44 74 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 38 70 38 76 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 71 41 74 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 70 37 75 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 72 41 75 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 70 39 75 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 66 43 70 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 70 42 74 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 73 43 78 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 62 39 66 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 63 41 67 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 64 36 68 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 65 32 70 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 61 37 66 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 63 39 68 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 64 38 69 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 68 44 71 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 60 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 33 61 34 67 / 30 0 0 0
RATON........................... 33 65 33 70 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 65 32 71 / 40 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 62 36 69 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 66 40 69 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 38 65 35 72 / 30 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 43 70 38 78 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 68 41 75 / 20 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 69 39 77 / 30 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 46 70 44 81 / 20 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 47 71 44 81 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 70 41 80 / 20 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 73 44 82 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 70 44 79 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 69 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...42
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