049
FXUS65 KABQ 251135 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS BUT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A WELL-DEFINED H5 LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TX THRU NOONTIME.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM NEAR SANTA
ROSA AND FT SUMNER TOWARD TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDING WEST FROM TX INTO EASTERN
NM. THE LATEST NBM PROBS FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT OVER FAR EASTERN NM
ARE >60% AND CEILINGS BELOW 500FT ARE NEAR 30% ALONG THE TX STATE
LINE. SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE
MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO NM BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH AN
OVERALL LOVELY AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WITH INCREASING CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5F ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE.
FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE BECOMING ZONAL SUNDAY AS A 135KT
SPEED MAX SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE STILL LIKELY IN WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE TRANQUIL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MILD FOR LATE
OCTOBER WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUING IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10F ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS WITH
PERSISTENT MIXING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND DRAG STRONGER 700-500MB LAYER FLOW ACROSS NM. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TREND BREEZIER FOR MORE OF THE AREA
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND ANOTHER
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH COOLER
BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH MIN TEMPS ALSO
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TUESDAY AS A
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST MX AND AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS OVER NM WILL BE COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF BOTH FRONTS TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM WHERE HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GAP
WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RGV TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW
CANYONS IN THE ABQ METRO AREA. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR MANY AREAS WITH FREEZE WATCHES
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM. GAP WINDS IN THE RGV MAY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FROM ABQ
SOUTHWARD. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NM. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
WARMING TEMPS AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A FEW SHRA/TS ARE STILL DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN NM BEFORE
SUNRISE. IFR LOW CIGS HAVE ALSO FORMED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE.
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE THRU NOONTIME AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS NM. VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHEAST NM WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
THAT IFR CIGS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN NM THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM. LOCALIZED MARGINALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER MAY OCCUR NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE MIN HUMIDITY FALLS
INTO THE 12 TO 15% RANGE WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS AGAIN. VENTILATION TRENDS HAVE IMPROVED TODAY THRU MONDAY
WITH FAIR TO GOOD VALUES NOW IN MANY AREAS. VENTILATION RATES MAY
DETERIORATE TO POOR IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 27 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 63 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 65 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 35 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 65 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 39 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 30 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 40 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 62 38 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 29 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 22 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 62 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 60 34 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 35 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 41 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 47 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 42 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 40 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 70 38 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 71 41 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 37 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 41 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 39 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 43 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 43 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 65 32 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 38 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 34 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 33 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 65 32 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 40 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 65 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 38 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 41 75 46 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 39 77 44 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 44 81 49 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 71 44 81 48 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 41 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 44 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 41 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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