695
FXUS65 KABQ 251752
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON
WILL POTENTIALLY OCCUR FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS NOW
EXITED INTO WEST TEXAS. IT IS A SPLENDID SATURDAY ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL ENTER INTO
UNION COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO QUAY,
EASTERN HARDING AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES COME SUNRISE BEFORE
BURNING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, A POTENT 120 TO 140 KT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEW MEXICO WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS JET ONLY RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (I.E. CLINES CORNERS AND VAUGHN). TEMPERATURES WARM UP,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM, THANKS TO THESE
WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 700 MB WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KTS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO PEAKS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. 700 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME BREEZY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS
CLINES CORNERS AND VAUGHN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES AVERAGE AREAWIDE. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SENDING A BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT OOZES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST GAP WIND (5
TO 10 KTS) TO THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL SEASON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE (30
TO 50%) CHANCE ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60 TO 80%)
CHANCE FOR THE ESPANOLA VALLEY TO SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL
SEASON. THE LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST WIND AT SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE
COULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SANTA FE
AIRPORT AND ABQ VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM. DRY NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY
NORTH FLOW ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE
DURING THE DAY TODAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NM AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL ENTER INTO UNION COUNTY JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO QUAY, EASTERN HARDING AND
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES COME SUNRISE. INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KTCC FROM 10 TO 16Z DUE TO INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FROM HI RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MILD WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD TO VERY GOOD
VENTILATION FOR THESE ZONES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL NM TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS FOR EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY. DRY AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
AREAWIDE. SOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 27 65 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 35 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 68 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 29 70 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 35 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 76 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 60 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 53 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 65 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 35 65 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 35 70 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 73 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 38 75 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 41 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 37 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 38 74 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 73 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 40 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 70 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 65 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 68 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 38 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 41 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 66 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 33 69 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 32 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 74 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 41 77 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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