575
FXUS65 KABQ 121103 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
403 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM TRACK,
TIMING, SNOW LEVELS, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THANKS TO
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, MAINLY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES.
CLINES CORNERS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, AND MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 25 OR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL
APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
PERHAPS WHAT MOST WANT TO KNOW IS: WILL CLOUDS IMPACT AURORA
VIEWING ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT? UNFORTUNATELY, YES, THEY COULD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST SKY COVER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NM, WHILE THE LEAST WILL
BE ACROSS EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND NOW FRIDAY
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY - THAT IS, DRY AND WARM. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE DATE.
MEANWHILE, THE STORM SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO STAY WELL OFF THE COAST
OF CA FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. EVEN BY LATE SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE JUST REACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL MEAN SATURDAY WILL STILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
AREAWIDE THANKS TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW NOW LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAS
VEGAS, NV BY MID DAY SUNDAY, THEN IT WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND UT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. IT FINALLY LOOKS TO CROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SOME
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL EXIST, WE'RE LIKELY GOING TO NEED TO RELY
ON LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE PACIFIC FRONT, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
THUS, PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND EASTERN NM WILL LIKELY END UP WITHOUT
PRECIPITATION AS DOWNSLOPING WILL TAKE OVER AS THE LOW/TROUGH
PASSES. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD, THUS, ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO AREAS ABOVE 8500FT. ONE
QUARTER INCH OR LESS (RAIN OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT) APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
OF COURSE, WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, IT'S UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL ITERATION OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
LARGE, SWEEPING CHANGES ARE NOT AS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND EVEN LESS
SO AFTER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM AND AREAS JUST AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM ARE SAMPLED BY MORE OBSERVATION NETWORKS.
INDICATIONS CONTINUE THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OR LOW APPROACHING NM MID WEEK, BUT MODELS DO NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM YET.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM, OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON EACH
AFTER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL, BUT A
FEW BREEZES WILL BE FELT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TODAY AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EASTERN NM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO MISS OUT ON MUCH PRECIPITATION. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 37 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 25 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 63 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 67 29 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 66 36 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 29 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 68 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 67 41 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 66 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 30 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 35 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 64 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 54 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 60 24 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 64 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 65 36 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 31 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 64 41 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 36 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 44 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 41 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 41 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 70 32 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 69 39 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 32 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 33 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 43 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 41 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 72 39 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 39 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 65 40 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 30 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 67 38 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 67 42 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 64 36 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 67 33 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 32 72 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 67 36 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 37 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 38 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 74 41 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 75 39 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 74 37 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 39 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 74 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 72 38 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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