967
FXUS65 KABQ 122052
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
152 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, THEN
AGAIN OVER SOME SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE ON MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOW LOOKS TO
FAVOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ON
HIGHER PEAKS, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY THICKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. THEN, SHEETS OF THIN,
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NM ALOFT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
AROUND 8-18 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHERE NEAR RECORD READINGS ARE EXPECTED
IN SOME LOCATIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, BUT SOME LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CAN EXPECT
MORE NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY,
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND FATHER NORTH THAN DEPICTED BY
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL GO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY DEPENDS ON THE MODEL, BUT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY TRACK WILL BE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TRACK DECREASES THE CHANCE THAT NEW MEXICO
WILL RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, QPF OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH, EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS, AND LOCALLY OVER A HALF INCH IN
THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB LOOK TO GRADUALLY
LOWER BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE BRAZOS RIDGE NEAR THE CO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD VARY FROM AROUND 6 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR
AVERAGES OVER WESTERN AREAS TO AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES
ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. AFTER DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES
MONDAY, PRECIP CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN
AREAS AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES CYCLING THROUGH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, THIN, BROKEN, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN THICKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, BROAD AREAS OF
CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MANY
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY, THEN PERSIST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND, THEN SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN US. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN MANY
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
35 MPH IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAY RETURN TO EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME BECAUSE SOME MODELS DEPICT A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 26 66 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 35 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 31 67 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 70 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 42 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 38 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 73 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 77 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 55 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 61 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 27 66 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 37 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 34 71 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 66 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 33 71 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 39 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 34 71 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 39 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 71 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 40 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 37 68 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 71 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 73 31 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 71 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 76 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 37 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 78 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 79 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 81 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 81 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 39 81 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 42 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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