001
FXUS65 KABQ 141132 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
432 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 406 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN OVER SOME SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION NOW LOOKS TO FAVOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW INCHES ON HIGHER PEAKS.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
STATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO BACK OFF ON CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AND CIRRUS SHOULD
FAVOR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NM LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
PATCHES OF THIN, HIGH CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. QUIET
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL NEAR OR BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS OVER EASTERN NM
TODAY, BUT ONE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 13 DAYS OF NOVEMBER IS 56.7
DEGREES FOR ABQ, WHICH IS THE THE WARMEST FIRST 13 DAYS ON RECORD
FOR THE ABQ AREA. THIS BEATS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 55.5 DEGREES.
TODAY (AND SATURDAY) WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS STREAK. OTHERWISE, A
FEW BREEZES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP AROUND KCQC THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING. EVEN WITH THESE SLIGHT COOL DOWNS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW RECORDS WILL
BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM SOCAL NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT
MAX PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND ACROSS NORTHWEST NM ON SUNDAY.
ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE THE NOON HOUR ON SUNDAY NEAR THE AZ
BORDER AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN QUITE HIGH, AT OR
ABOVE 10KFT, BUT WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO AROUND 8500 FEET. BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION REMAIN
ABOVE 8500 ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASED WINDS
WITH IT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE FELT MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND GUSTY
WINDS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NM BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN AROUND 40-50KT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS THE SUN RISES MONDAY MORNING AND DAYTIME MIXING
BEGINS, GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM
THROUGH MID DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO KCQC WHERE
GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS RELAX ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE COOLER, BUT STILL UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK CLOSED LOW SYSTEM, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME HINTS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE FIRST, BRING
PRECIPITATION TO A WIDER AREA, AND COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE. THAT SAID, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
WARM, SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (7500-8000FT). AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NM LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
BREEZES WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS AROUND KCQC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NM,
BOTH AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY AND A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL. PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM WHERE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES OF A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD, WHICH COULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. POOR
VENTILATION IN AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN MOST
DAYS. SUNDAY IS THE EXCEPTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 36 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 67 28 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 67 30 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 31 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 70 29 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 68 33 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 67 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 32 69 37 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 78 36 74 41 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 60 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 67 39 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 35 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 58 28 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 18 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 66 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 68 37 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 70 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 38 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 45 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 38 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 35 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 72 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 34 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 35 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 75 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 67 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 71 30 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 38 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 41 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 35 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 73 34 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 75 32 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 71 39 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 79 46 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 75 38 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 81 40 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 43 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 44 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 43 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 83 45 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 44 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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