518
FXUS65 KABQ 151120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST IN THE
ROSWELL, CLOVIS, AND PORTALES AREA TODAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET, MAINLY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM, AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE STATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER
LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF SOCAL PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD VALUES AT A NUMBER OF
LOCALES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ALBUQUERQUE, CLOVIS, PORTALES
AND ROSWELL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST GOING INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH PWATS ASCENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN
SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
PROCESS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DELIVERING A
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHWEST NM AND SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
TO AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS
MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THREE INCHES.
IN ADDITION, THE PASSING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL STEER STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS,
INCLUDING THE EAST SLOPES GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED, BUT IS A LOWER PROBABILITY (20-30%)
EVENT AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA. THAT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL BE ON A COLLISION-COURSE WITH NM AND IS FORECAST
TO BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW, THEY AGREE ON THE TIMING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVING OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN NM TUE/WED WITH SNOW LEVELS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 6K FEET, ALTHOUGH ANY NOTABLE
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT 7500FT OR HIGHER. THE LACK OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION AND KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATION MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER, COLDER AND POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LOW WILL
FOLLOW NEXT WEEKEND, BUT LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND IMPACTS DUE TO NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD AT THAT PROJECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR/GOOD
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING, THEN AGAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND IMPROVED CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 41 62 36 / 0 5 40 60
DULCE........................... 67 29 60 29 / 0 0 30 80
CUBA............................ 67 36 61 30 / 0 0 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 68 35 60 31 / 0 0 50 40
EL MORRO........................ 66 36 58 33 / 0 0 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 70 33 63 30 / 0 0 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 68 37 59 31 / 0 0 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 69 43 64 36 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 67 37 58 33 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 70 34 59 29 / 0 0 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 76 39 66 33 / 0 5 30 10
CHAMA........................... 62 31 54 27 / 0 0 20 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 42 60 35 / 0 0 5 50
PECOS........................... 69 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 35 60 32 / 0 0 0 50
RED RIVER....................... 62 28 56 27 / 0 0 0 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 20 59 29 / 0 0 0 30
TAOS............................ 67 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 68 35 64 32 / 0 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 71 37 67 36 / 0 0 5 50
SANTA FE........................ 67 40 63 39 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 38 66 36 / 0 0 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 45 69 43 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 39 71 37 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 42 68 39 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 73 37 72 36 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 73 41 69 38 / 0 0 5 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 35 70 34 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 73 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 36 70 35 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 70 44 66 40 / 0 0 5 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 42 68 39 / 0 0 0 30
SOCORRO......................... 75 44 72 39 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 42 62 36 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 68 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 39 65 36 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 31 67 32 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 39 63 34 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 72 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 74 32 72 35 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 39 67 37 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 74 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 74 38 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 38 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 42 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 41 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 46 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 44 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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