822
FXUS65 KABQ 152016
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
116 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET, MAINLY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHEN THEY WILL GRADUALLY FALL BETWEEN -2 TO -4 C AS A
GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES NM. AS A RESULT, ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH RIDGELINE OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE UNDER 0.15" OF RAIN AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS NORTH OF I-40. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. PEAK
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN, THERE IS A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCE THAT A RIBBON
OF WEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON THE UPPER EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL THEN FAVOR THE
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AT CLINES CORNERS.
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS, THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 4 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR
AVERAGES ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON TIMING, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON
THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
FAVOR A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA, OR PERHAPS PASSING
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LIKE THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN MODEL. THUS, AT THIS TIME SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN THEN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN TO
AREAS FARTHER EAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ALSO DROP INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BETWEEN -2 TO -8 C WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWERING
SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVELS NEAR 6000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, BY THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
EXIT EAST OF NM. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES STABILIZE IN MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY, READINGS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WHEN THEY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS TO NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
HUMIDITIES WILL THEN CLIMB ABOVE 15 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD. THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF THE
STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES
ALSO TRENDING COOLER. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 40 65 37 / 0 5 50 50
DULCE........................... 67 25 62 29 / 0 0 40 80
CUBA............................ 67 35 62 31 / 0 0 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 68 33 61 30 / 0 0 50 30
EL MORRO........................ 66 35 60 33 / 0 0 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 70 33 64 31 / 0 0 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 68 36 60 31 / 0 0 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 69 43 65 37 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 67 37 60 32 / 0 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 70 35 62 30 / 0 0 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 76 40 68 34 / 0 5 30 5
CHAMA........................... 62 30 57 27 / 0 0 20 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 41 61 35 / 0 0 5 50
PECOS........................... 69 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 37 60 32 / 0 0 0 40
RED RIVER....................... 62 32 53 25 / 0 0 0 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 23 59 22 / 0 0 0 30
TAOS............................ 67 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 68 35 65 31 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 71 33 69 34 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA FE........................ 67 41 62 36 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 36 65 34 / 0 0 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 47 67 42 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 41 70 39 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 38 72 38 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 42 70 39 / 0 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 73 36 72 37 / 0 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 73 40 70 38 / 0 0 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 35 72 36 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 73 40 71 38 / 0 0 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 37 71 37 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 70 44 66 39 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 41 70 39 / 0 0 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 75 43 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 40 62 35 / 0 0 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 68 41 64 37 / 0 0 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 31 67 33 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 40 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 36 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 72 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 74 31 71 34 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 74 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 74 38 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 38 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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