870
FXUS65 KABQ 161803 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET,
MAINLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN.
- THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) THAT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOCAL PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT, THEN EJECT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND GIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO NORTHWEST NM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT,
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS INCLUDING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, WITH ONLY THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
SPECIFICALLY, THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW THANKS PARTIALLY TO
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FORCING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NM TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE PEAKS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS,
INCLUDING THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50-55MPH. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH ON TUE/WED,
THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
OF A DIRECT HIT TO NM, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
UPPER LOW ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 555DAM AT 500MB, BUT
700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -5 TO -7C
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. A MISSING INGREDIENT IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD TURN THIS SCENARIO INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER
STORM EVENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW BRINGING WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE (50-70%) THAT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
EVENT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOTABLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL
COME WITH A PACIFIC FRONT ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL
SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL REFRAIN FROM GETTING INTO THE
WEEDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS WILL SURGE EAST ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NM TODAY. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH A GUSTY WEST
WIND SHIFT NEAR 30KT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE RGV BETWEEN 5PM
AND 7PM. PRECIP WILL THEN FOCUS ALONG THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN MTS THRU MIDNIGHT. THE NBM SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AROUND KGUP, KFMN AND THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS IN THESE SAME AREAS.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER EASTERN NM ALL NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS
IMPACT THE REGION. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. VENT
RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF FAIR TO GOOD, BUT ARE FORECAST TO
TAKE A DIP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 37 52 34 / 70 40 0 5
DULCE........................... 62 27 48 19 / 50 90 10 0
CUBA............................ 63 29 51 28 / 40 70 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 28 51 27 / 70 10 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 59 33 50 31 / 60 30 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 64 29 56 28 / 50 30 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 60 30 54 32 / 40 10 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 65 35 59 37 / 0 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 60 31 55 32 / 10 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 29 59 30 / 40 10 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 68 33 64 34 / 50 10 0 5
CHAMA........................... 57 25 42 20 / 30 90 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 35 51 33 / 10 60 0 0
PECOS........................... 63 32 53 33 / 0 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 30 49 28 / 0 60 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 58 24 44 23 / 0 60 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 19 46 17 / 0 40 0 0
TAOS............................ 63 29 52 23 / 0 60 0 0
MORA............................ 65 31 54 29 / 0 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 31 57 27 / 5 60 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 34 52 35 / 0 50 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 32 55 30 / 5 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 40 58 41 / 5 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 37 61 36 / 5 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 37 63 34 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 37 61 36 / 10 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 34 64 31 / 5 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 37 62 34 / 10 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 34 63 31 / 5 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 71 37 62 34 / 10 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 36 63 32 / 5 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 37 57 37 / 5 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 37 61 36 / 10 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 39 67 38 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 35 53 33 / 5 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 66 36 57 35 / 5 30 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 32 57 30 / 0 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 32 57 25 / 0 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 63 33 53 31 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 35 56 33 / 0 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 34 57 33 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 42 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 39 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 33 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 69 31 61 26 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 33 62 27 / 0 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 35 59 33 / 0 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 70 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 69 36 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 44 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 40 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 44 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 46 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 79 44 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 78 42 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 81 45 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 76 42 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 74 39 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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