615
FXUS65 KABQ 162354
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
454 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 432 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET, MAINLY NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GREATER CHANCES
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) THAT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
AN ELONGATED H5 LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS, NV WILL SWING NORTHEAST INTO UT
TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING EAST WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER WESTERN NM
AND THE NORTHERN MTS THRU THIS EVENING. THE 15Z RRFS AND 18Z HRRR
FORCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS INTO THE ABQ AND SAF
METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE GUSTS AVERAGE 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRONTOLYSIS TAKES PLACE ONCE REACHING THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THEN
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP FOCUSES ON THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MTS THRU MIDNIGHT. IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE
8500 FT WITH 1-4" POSSIBLE IN THE TUSAS/SAN JUAN MTS AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A
PERIOD OF STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 700MB WINDS NEAR 50KT WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH FROM NEAR
ANGEL FIRE TO CLINES CORNERS AND VAUGHN. COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER
GUSTS IN NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AREAWIDE COMPARED TO RECENT WEEKS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS, MORE CIRRUS, AND COOL TEMPS. LOWS WILL STILL BE 5
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO SOCAL. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVERHEAD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS AND INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. A 556DM H5 LOW OVER SOCAL TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN AZ WEDNESDAY WITH A 105KT
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX MOVING NORTH FROM NORTHWEST MX. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TREND PWATS NEAR +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE
NOVEMBER ACROSS NM. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH INTO NM WITH THE UPPER JET FORCING BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY AGAIN AREAWIDE. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW
IS ACTUALLY VERY GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE LOW MAY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
6500 FT. THE LATEST NBM 50TH PERCENTILE 48-HR SNOW AMOUNTS SHOW
1-3" OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN
THE 4-8" RANGE IN THE NORTHERN MTS. THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS ARE A
CLOSER MATCH TO THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST MAX TEMPS OF THE FALL SEASON, WHICH IS
ONLY 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL THRU FRIDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER SOCAL AND AZ AROUND FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NM NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS ON ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM FOR NM. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY DOWN TO THE MVFR CATEGORY (CEILINGS LESS THAN 3000 FT
AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 5 MILES) WITH GUST WINDS ACCOMPANYING.
MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN LOWER
CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN SHOWERS WILL START TO
EXIT AND FALL APART. WINDS ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT 10,000FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL REACHING 40-50 KT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS WITH TURBULENCE EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
DOWN TO JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE (LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR). STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 30-40
KT NEAR KLVS, KCQC, KSXU, AND KTCC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS ENTIRE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW TO NORTHWEST NM LATER TODAY WITH COLDER
TEMPS, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS THRU MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GREATER
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 52 34 55 / 40 0 5 30
DULCE........................... 27 48 19 54 / 90 10 0 20
CUBA............................ 29 51 28 54 / 70 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 28 51 27 53 / 10 0 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 33 50 31 53 / 30 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 29 56 28 57 / 30 0 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 30 54 32 54 / 10 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 35 59 37 57 / 10 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 31 55 32 54 / 20 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 29 59 30 56 / 10 0 5 30
GLENWOOD........................ 33 64 34 62 / 10 0 5 30
CHAMA........................... 25 42 20 49 / 90 10 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 51 33 52 / 60 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 32 53 33 56 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 49 28 52 / 60 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 24 44 23 49 / 60 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 19 46 17 52 / 40 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 52 23 56 / 60 0 0 0
MORA............................ 31 54 29 57 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 31 57 27 60 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 34 52 35 55 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 32 55 30 57 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 58 41 59 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 37 61 36 61 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 37 63 34 63 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 61 36 61 / 30 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 34 64 31 62 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 37 62 34 62 / 30 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 34 63 31 62 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 37 62 34 62 / 30 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 63 32 62 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 57 37 58 / 30 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 61 36 61 / 30 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 67 38 64 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 53 33 54 / 30 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 57 35 57 / 30 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 57 30 59 / 30 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 57 25 59 / 20 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 53 31 55 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 56 33 57 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 57 33 57 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 39 56 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 33 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 31 61 26 58 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 62 27 60 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 59 33 57 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 41 67 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 44 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 69 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 39 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...52
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