562
FXUS65 KABQ 171748 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
- A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) THAT WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS IS CURRENTLY
RACING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NM ARE BRINGING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS CURRENTLY, WHICH WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE ADJACENT EASTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 2PM
MDT, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50-55MPH LIKELY. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL
KEEP RELATIVE WARMER CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM
TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH FORCING TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW, FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PWATS RISING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
556DAM 500MB LOW. A JET MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER CIRCULATION GOING INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SQUARELY OVER NM. THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WHEN
POPS ARE HIGHEST AND CONTINUING TO TREND UP WITH EACH FORECAST
CYCLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENT,
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY ABOVE 7500FT. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) THAT WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WORK DOWN TO
AROUND 6KFT THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WILL MIX WITH RAIN AND THE
AIRMASS WON'T BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS BEING
IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW. NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
COME THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS AND AWAY FROM NM. LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW, WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AFTER A ROUGHLY TWO DAY LULL IN ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
AREAS OF MVFR LOW CIGS AROUND KGUP AND THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR THRU THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE LIKELY IN AREAS FROM KRTN TO KCQC AND
KTCC THRU 3PM. A THICK BATCH OF CIRRUS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS NEAR 070 MOVING
INTO WESTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND KGUP AND KFMN BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR MT OBSCURATIONS IN THE TUSAS/SAN JUAN MTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGHER HUMIDITY, CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION AND NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS. THE FIRST
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
EASTERN NM TODAY. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL HIT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
THIRD SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. VENT RATES
WILL TREND DOWN AND BE MOSTLY POOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 32 58 35 / 5 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 48 19 55 25 / 20 0 5 20
CUBA............................ 51 27 55 31 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 51 26 57 27 / 0 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 50 30 55 32 / 0 0 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 56 27 59 30 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 54 31 56 33 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 59 36 58 41 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 55 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 60 30 60 32 / 0 0 5 30
GLENWOOD........................ 64 35 65 36 / 0 0 10 30
CHAMA........................... 42 19 50 25 / 30 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 33 53 38 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 53 32 56 36 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 27 53 33 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 45 22 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 17 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 51 22 56 29 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 54 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 57 27 60 32 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 52 35 55 39 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 57 37 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 41 60 46 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 35 61 43 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 34 63 41 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 37 60 42 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 64 32 63 39 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 61 35 62 41 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 62 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 56 37 58 43 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 36 61 41 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 67 37 66 43 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 34 55 39 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 56 31 58 41 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 29 59 37 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 25 60 34 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 31 56 37 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 33 58 39 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 39 63 44 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 56 40 58 42 / 0 0 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 57 28 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 60 27 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 61 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 32 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 37 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 63 33 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 40 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 42 72 47 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 71 41 73 46 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 74 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 69 41 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 67 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ213>215-223.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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