582
FXUS65 KABQ 172349 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
- A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
A 547DM H5 LOW NEAR SAN FRANCISCO TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO SOCAL THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. A 110KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
ASSOCIATED RICH TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING PWATS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. THE LATEST NAEFS SHOWS PWATS TRENDING 2 TO 3 STDEV ABOVE
CLIMO FOR LATE NOVEMBER AT KABQ (0.60-0.65"). THE OVERALL IMPACT
ACROSS NM IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
HIGHER HUMIDITY, SLIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES, AND MIN TEMPS
STILL 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT WITH IMPROVING ASCENT
AND DIFFLUENCE OVER NM AS THE H5 LOW BEGINS DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
WEST-CENTRAL AZ. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE NORTHWARD OVER NM WITH
A COUPLE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
OF THE H5 LOW AS IT MOVES EAST FROM AZ AND FILLS TO NEAR 560DM THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
A COUPLE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO LOW ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF SIGNATURES GIVEN SOME
IMPORTANT DETAILS IN THE MESOSCALE PATTERN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS TO PICK UP BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0" OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY FAVORED BETWEEN THE RGV, CENTRAL MT CHAIN,
AND HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 9500' WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR 8000' THURSDAY THEN NEAR 6500' THURSDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
SINCE 700MB TEMPS BENEATH THE LOW ARE PROGGED TO AVERAGE -2C TO
-4C. THE LATEST NBM 50TH PERCENTILE 48-HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ROUGHLY 2-5" ABOVE 7500' WITH 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN THE 5-10"
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS. THIS WOULD WARRANT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WITH PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA AT ONLY
5-10%.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NM FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH AN EVEN WIDER VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENT
NOW FROM THE 12Z SUITE. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
BATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS (3500-5000FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE STILL
LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT CURRENTLY CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
(10-30% CHANCE) THAT SCATTERED AREAS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF THESE CEILINGS JUST BENEATH MVFR
STATUS (CEILINGS LESS THAN 3000 FT) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TAFS (ESPECIALLY AT KGUP). OTHERWISE, HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH ALTOSTRATUS
(BASES AROUND 15,000FT) INTO THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES (GENERALLY 5-15 KT) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH WETTING RAIN.
THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL STAY ABOVE 9000' WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN FALL TO NEAR
8000' THURSDAY THEN NEAR 6500' THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BREAK IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENTILATION WILL DETERIORATE
TO POOR IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 58 35 59 / 0 5 10 10
DULCE........................... 19 55 25 56 / 0 5 20 20
CUBA............................ 27 55 31 55 / 0 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 26 57 27 55 / 0 5 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 30 55 32 54 / 0 5 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 27 59 30 57 / 0 0 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 31 56 33 55 / 0 0 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 36 58 41 55 / 0 0 5 30
DATIL........................... 32 55 35 53 / 0 0 10 30
RESERVE......................... 30 60 32 57 / 0 5 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 35 65 36 61 / 0 10 30 50
CHAMA........................... 19 50 25 50 / 0 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 53 38 52 / 0 0 10 20
PECOS........................... 32 56 36 55 / 0 0 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 53 33 52 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 22 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 17 52 24 52 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 22 56 29 56 / 0 0 5 10
MORA............................ 30 57 32 55 / 0 0 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 27 60 32 60 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 35 55 39 55 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 30 57 37 57 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 60 46 60 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 61 43 62 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 63 41 64 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 60 42 61 / 0 0 5 10
BELEN........................... 32 63 39 63 / 0 0 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 35 62 41 63 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 31 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 20
CORRALES........................ 35 63 41 63 / 0 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 32 62 40 63 / 0 0 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 37 58 43 58 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 36 61 41 62 / 0 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 37 66 43 65 / 0 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 55 39 55 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 31 58 41 58 / 0 0 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 59 37 59 / 0 0 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 25 60 34 59 / 0 0 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 56 37 55 / 0 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 32 58 39 57 / 0 0 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 58 39 57 / 0 0 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 63 44 60 / 0 0 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 40 58 42 55 / 0 0 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 28 55 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 27 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 27 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 59 37 57 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 60 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 37 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 42 72 47 71 / 0 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 41 73 46 72 / 0 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 70 43 67 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 42 74 48 73 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 41 70 45 68 / 0 0 10 10
ELK............................. 37 68 41 65 / 0 0 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...52
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