092
FXUS65 KABQ 181130 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
- A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ALONG 10N. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES
BY WEDNESDAY AS THE 558DAM 500MB LOW TURNS EAST ACROSS SOCAL
TOWARD WESTERN AZ. FORCING WILL BE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE
THE LATEST NAM IS ADVERTISING NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND SBCAPE
VALUES OF 100-300J/KG.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW HASN'T CHANGED
MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE AND IS MODELED TO FILL AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH, WHILE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LOWS DIVES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE CA COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND ARE STILL TRENDING UP WITH EACH
FORECAST CYCLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF HIGH, AROUND 9KFT, BUT
WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 7-8KFT AT TIMES THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AROUND THE LOW CIRCULATION MOVES OVER CENTRAL NM. THAT SAID,
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN
AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT IS UNSUPPORTIVE (TOO WARM) OF ACCUMULATIONS
AT OUR POPULATION CENTERS. SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND GRAUPEL IS LIKELY,
WHICH MAY CREATE SHORT-LIVED DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF NM EARLY FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW TURNING
INLAND OVER SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ALONG THE US/MX BORDER,
BUT THERE IS NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY. LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE A REFLECTION
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF CHANCES TREND UP
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS, EXCEPT FOR AT KGUP
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS TWO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS, INCREASED HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL HIT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AND BE MOSTLY POOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 35 59 40 / 5 10 10 40
DULCE........................... 54 28 55 28 / 0 10 20 40
CUBA............................ 53 32 54 32 / 0 10 20 60
GALLUP.......................... 56 28 56 32 / 0 5 10 60
EL MORRO........................ 54 32 54 35 / 0 10 20 70
GRANTS.......................... 58 30 55 33 / 0 10 20 60
QUEMADO......................... 55 34 56 35 / 0 10 30 60
MAGDALENA....................... 58 41 55 39 / 0 20 40 70
DATIL........................... 56 36 54 35 / 0 20 40 70
RESERVE......................... 58 32 58 31 / 5 30 50 70
GLENWOOD........................ 62 36 61 33 / 10 50 60 70
CHAMA........................... 48 27 49 28 / 0 10 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 39 51 38 / 0 10 20 60
PECOS........................... 55 35 53 34 / 0 10 20 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 33 50 32 / 0 5 5 30
RED RIVER....................... 48 25 48 27 / 0 5 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 24 51 18 / 0 5 5 30
TAOS............................ 55 31 54 31 / 0 5 5 40
MORA............................ 57 33 55 31 / 0 5 10 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 36 59 35 / 0 10 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 55 39 55 38 / 0 10 20 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 37 58 36 / 0 10 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 45 58 44 / 0 20 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 44 61 43 / 0 20 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 38 63 36 / 0 20 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 42 60 42 / 0 20 20 60
BELEN........................... 62 40 61 40 / 0 20 30 70
BERNALILLO...................... 61 41 60 40 / 0 10 20 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 37 61 37 / 0 20 20 60
CORRALES........................ 61 40 60 40 / 0 10 20 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 38 60 38 / 0 20 20 60
PLACITAS........................ 59 43 58 43 / 0 10 20 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 43 59 42 / 0 10 20 60
SOCORRO......................... 64 45 61 44 / 0 20 30 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 41 54 39 / 0 20 20 60
TIJERAS......................... 57 43 55 40 / 0 20 20 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 39 55 39 / 0 20 30 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 34 57 32 / 0 20 30 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 37 53 35 / 0 10 20 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 40 56 37 / 0 20 30 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 39 55 37 / 0 20 40 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 45 58 41 / 0 20 40 70
RUIDOSO......................... 57 41 53 37 / 0 20 40 70
CAPULIN......................... 57 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 60 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 62 33 64 31 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 37 57 34 / 0 5 10 40
CLAYTON......................... 64 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 61 40 62 37 / 0 0 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 69 42 68 40 / 0 5 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 44 64 40 / 0 10 10 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 43 69 41 / 0 5 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 72 47 70 46 / 0 5 20 40
PORTALES........................ 73 44 72 43 / 0 5 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 42 67 41 / 0 10 10 40
ROSWELL......................... 73 48 71 47 / 0 10 10 50
PICACHO......................... 70 45 66 42 / 0 10 20 50
ELK............................. 67 40 62 37 / 0 20 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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