214
FXUS65 KABQ 050808
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
108 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
- NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE NW HIGH TERRAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT FOG IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AND THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NM AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE OF ANY FOG IN THE ESTANCIA BASIN THIS MORNING.
WITH DRY AIR SETTLING IN TONIGHT, IT'S GOING TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO BITTERLY COLD LEVELS IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUITE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REMAIN
A FEW TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THANKS TO SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THAT WILL BLOCK JUST ENOUGH SOLAR RADIATION. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND 700MB WINDS OF 30-40 KTS
WILL CREATE A STRONG BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. MAX WIND GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO
40 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~10%) OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH 700MB WINDS REACHING NEARLY 65 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE PEAKS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. NBM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MODERATE CHANCE (40-60%) OF WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE CREST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, BUT ONLY A LOW CHANCE (<20%) THAT THESE STRONGER WINDS
EXTEND INTO THE HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THESE WIND PROBS AND THE FORECAST WIND GUSTS INCREASE IN AT LEAST
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE COMING FORECAST PACKAGES GIVEN THIS
FAVORABLE PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
WINDS ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALLOWING THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
HERE IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE TUSAS
ON SATURDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SHOW THIS RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FINALLY DROP THE
STORM TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT THIS IS
UNLIKELY (ONLY AROUND 20% CHANCE) AND IF IT DID HAPPEN, ANY PRECIP.
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST THU DEC 4 2025
A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE SAN JUAN MTS TONIGHT WILL LINGER
THRU FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASING OVER THE ROCKIES MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HIGH TURB ACROSS NORTHERN NM THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE ELEVATED AGAIN FRIDAY NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE, ESPECIALLY AROUND KCQC.
OTHERWISE, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS
AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST, PLACING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, CREATING BREEZY TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL MAKE MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO VENTILATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS, WITH WORSE VENTILATION EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, REACHING WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BECOMING FAIR TO GOOD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 21 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 9 43 10 / 0 0 10 0
CUBA............................ 40 17 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 16 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 18 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 17 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 18 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 48 25 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 21 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 53 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 58 23 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 9 37 11 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 21 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 19 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 14 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 9 36 11 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 11 38 8 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 37 13 43 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 16 46 18 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 18 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 22 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 19 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 26 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 22 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 48 20 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 48 23 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 48 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 48 21 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 24 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 22 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 23 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 21 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 18 49 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 20 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 21 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 22 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 15 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 45 13 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 12 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 18 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 21 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 44 18 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 20 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 21 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 24 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 23 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 22 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 26 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 26 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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