424
FXUS65 KABQ 061133 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
433 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
- NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE AND HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO SNOWMELT
ACROSS MIDSLOPE AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STARTING TO INTENSIFY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STRONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY,
STRONG WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN TOPS, WITH THESE WINDS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS BY MID-MORNING,
AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE MORNING. WHILE THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG ROUGE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH CRASHING
MOUNTAIN WAVES JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, THE
LACK OF STRONG STABILITY ON THE EAST SLOPES SUGGESTS THIS IS
UNLIKELY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY, AS THERE IS A
LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF 50MPH+ GUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY AREA PER HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE. THE DEEPER MIXING AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP 5-10 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS, WITH THE BIGGEST WARM-UP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
MOUNTAIN-WAVE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALL
DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
A DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW TICKS AND
KEEPING HIGHS WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH PLEASANT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
EARLY DECEMBER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STORY ALL NEXT WEEK. 700 AND 500 MB
TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE THE PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY ON TUESDAY AND
WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO, LEAVING THE AREA DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY
WARM EACH DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING ON THURSDAY, WHEN
RECORD HIGHS MAY GET THREATENED IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A
BACKDOOR FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL LIKELY COOL TEMPS DOWN A TAD ON
FRIDAY, BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE SHOWING
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WINTER
SOLSTICE (DEC 21ST), SUGGESTING THE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
LOW CLOUDS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LLWS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN
AND AROUND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF TO
THE DECK WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AROUND 15Z, CREATING
GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. A
DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION MORE TO THE NORTH. LLWS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS TONIGHT AND MAY EXPAND MORE INTO EASTERN NM AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING, WILL PEAK
IN THE LATE MORNING, THEN TREND WEAKER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PEAKS
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT BREEZE.
A DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING A
NORTHWEST BREEZE AROUND OVER MOUNTAIN-TOPS AND ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE A FEW TICKS EACH DAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES EACH DAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IT COULD PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL
DAYS BEYOND THAT.
OUTSIDE OF LOWER-LYING VALLEYS (SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE), FAIR TO
GOOD VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BECOMING POOR TO FAIR IN MOST
AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO THE LACK OF DEEP
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 24 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 10 43 10 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 46 20 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 18 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 23 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 21 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 24 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 30 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 25 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 24 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 63 27 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 11 39 12 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 24 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 18 40 18 / 0 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 10 37 12 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 8 39 8 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 44 16 41 13 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 46 18 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 51 20 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 25 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 22 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 31 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 28 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 26 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 29 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 22 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 22 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 54 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 24 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 49 29 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 28 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 26 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 27 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 20 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 22 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 31 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 19 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 17 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 52 17 47 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 20 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 59 27 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 22 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 25 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 26 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 30 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 27 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 34 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 34 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 62 30 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ214-215-223.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page