397
FXUS65 KABQ 190548 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
- SPORADIC AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS ON AREA HIGHWAYS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH- PROFILE VEHICLES.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THREATENED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN NEAR CHRISTMAS FOR WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT FOR EASTERN NM WHERE EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE BEHIND
THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
700MB FLOW THAT CAUSED THIS MORNING'S HIGH WINDS BEGINS TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, THE DOWNSLOPING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF SEVERAL NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE, THOUGH THE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST WILL DAMPEN CHANCES OUT THAT WAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME, BUT THE 700MB WINDS INCREASE
IN SPEED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, MOST LIKELY LEADING
TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE PEAKS. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE GOOD
PROBABILITIES (>50% CHANCE) AND HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THOSE WIND
SPEEDS, GIVEN THAT THEY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE MOST LOCALES,
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOLKS SHOULD
STILL BE PREPARED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THAT NORMALLY ACCOMPANY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.
INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
NM, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE
AS THIS MOST RECENT EVENT GIVEN WEAKER 700MB FLOW AND LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVES. EVEN SO, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE, WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45MPH ARE LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. PLACES IN FAR EASTERN NM SEE THEIR WINDS TAPER
OFF NEAR SUNDOWN, BUT THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS LOOK TO HAVE THESE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE 700MB FLOW STRENGTHENING TO
OVER 50KTS ALONG THE SANGRES AND A BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (SEEN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE AND THETA-E
GRADIENTS). AS WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WINDS, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 60MPH NEAR THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES
DURING THIS EVENT, THOUGH WITH THE MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, OF THE WIND
REMAINING ABOVE POPULATION CENTERS, WILL FOREGO ANY HIGH WIND WATCH.
ANOTHER NOTE FOR FRIDAY IS THAT WE SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE TO BREAK
OR EVEN SHATTER MULTIPLE DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE,
ALBUQUERQUE, FARMINGTON, GALLUP, RATON, ROSWELL AND TUCUMCARI ARE
ALL CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGH 60S TO HIGH 70S ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
NM, WITH UP TO HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
THE LONG TERM REMAINS DOMINATED BY NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. OUTSIDE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15-25F ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NM THREATENING 30F ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ZONAL AS A ~589DM HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS MORE
LIKELY AROUND CHRISTMAS, WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE
OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITH THIS, A CHANNEL OF MOISTURE IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND
WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE RETURNED IN
THE FORECAST, WITH ~20-30% CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NM. SHOULD
THIS PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZE, A VAST MAJORITY OF IT WOULD BE RAIN,
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO LOCATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 9,500FT, PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER. PRECIPITATION RATES AND AMOUNTS WOULD BE HEAVILY AFFECTED
BY ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW, BUT DETAILS WILL
BECOME IRONED OUT AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL NM ON
FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH AROUND 35 KT OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING KTCC, AND NEAR 45 KT OVER THE
PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATION WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOME WITH SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING, BUT MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NM ON
FRIDAY GIVEN BREEZY WINDS AND MID TEENS HUMIDITY VALUES. WEST WINDS
OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45MPH ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED AREAS IN EASTERN NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT WITH THIS NOT BEING WIDESPREAD, AND
THE ERCS OF EASTERN NM REMAINING AT OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE,
NO RED FLAG WARNING IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES. SEVERAL BREEZY AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
MAY BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 28 57 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 19 57 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 27 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 24 62 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 67 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 67 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 27 72 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 74 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 22 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 56 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 33 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 55 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 47 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 20 53 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 28 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 31 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 28 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 33 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 66 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 33 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 63 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 58 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 59 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 33 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 64 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 26 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 32 72 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 31 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 34 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 33 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 34 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 75 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 38 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 37 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...44
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