847
FXUS65 KABQ 191147 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
- SPORADIC AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS ON AREA HIGHWAYS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN CHRISTMAS EVE FOR WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE JET STREAM WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM LATER TODAY, THANKS IN PART TO A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD TODAY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TONIGHT AND MAY
SPREAD TO THE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS GOING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LESS WIND IS FORECAST SATURDAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM, WITH A MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE LEE SIDE
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH MORE RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH,
CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA,
MOVES EAST ACROSS MX TO TX AND A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH POUNDS THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST,
IT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH, DISPLACING THE JET STREAM FURTHER
NORTH AND EXPANDING/INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS EVE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE AND
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO AT LEAST BRING OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM, SO THIS
WILL BE A LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SCENARIO
WITH VERY LOW WHITE CHRISTMAS PROBABILITIES ACROSS WESTERN NM,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR POPULATION CENTERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS ARE FORECAST AT
KTCC. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE, WITH IMPACTS AT KGUP AND KTCC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM TODAY,
COMBINING WITH LOW HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SAME SETUP FOR SATURDAY,
BUT WITH LESS WIND MAKING FOR MORE SPOTTY ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS MX TO TX WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DETERIORATING VENTILATION THAT WILL BE
MOSTLY POOR. HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP NEXT WED/THU, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
ENTER THE FORECAST AS A POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 57 24 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 60 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 30 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 33 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 41 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 67 37 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 30 71 28 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 74 34 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 51 27 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 36 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 57 38 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 34 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 32 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 27 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 58 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 61 38 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 63 31 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 56 37 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 33 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 38 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 34 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 64 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 33 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 64 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 35 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 40 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 39 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 39 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 38 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 36 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 36 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 38 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 40 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 64 44 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 62 35 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 35 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 67 33 67 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 38 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 45 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 69 38 68 28 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 42 74 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 45 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 46 75 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 73 46 74 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 74 45 75 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 45 74 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 75 39 79 37 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 76 46 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 44 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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