263
FXUS65 KABQ 200510
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1010 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 959 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
- SPORADIC AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL CREATE
DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9,500 FEET TONIGHT.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORM OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN CHRISTMAS EVE FOR WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN WAVES CONTINUE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY BLANKET OF STANDING WAVE CLOUDS
CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, COVERING MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
NM. EVEN WITH THAT, DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE ROBUST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE MET EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE
BREEZES AND STANDING WAVE CLOUDS ALMOST CERTAINLY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ROUGHLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. THE
18Z ABQ SOUNDING MEASURED ROUGHLY 30-40KT WINDS UP AROUND 700MB,
SIGNIFYING THE STOUT FLOW AT THAT LEVEL. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MIXTURE OF
A TIGHTENING 700MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SANGRES. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS AT THE
700MB LEVEL OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SUSTAINED GUSTY
CONDITIONS AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SANGRES, AS WELL AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WITH THE SANGRES,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTS OVER 50MPH OCCURRING AT AND ABOVE
9,500FT, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS 60MPH OR GREATER NEAR
THE PEAKS. EVEN THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THESE GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MOST POPULATION CENTERS, HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH A
BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY, THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT NOT BEFORE DEVELOPING ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE
OF THE SANGRES PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM. THE
MAIN BREEZY AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40-45MPH (HIGHER CONFIDENCE NEAR CLINES CORNERS). HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THEIR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TREND, WITH MID TO HIGH 70S ACROSS
THE EAST AND MID TO HIGH 60S ELSEWHERE (GOOD FOR 15-25F ABOVE
AVERAGE).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
"COOLING" OFF TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH 50S TO MID 60S, BUT OTHER
THAN THAT, ZONAL FLOW WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPS NEW MEXICO WARM, DRY AND BREEZY UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS EASTERN NM AND HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE DECEMBER.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING TO BUCKLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, GENERATING A DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE US. IN TURN, THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO
SEND MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE AREA OF
WESTERN NM BY WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN 15-
20F ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, RAIN WILL
DOMINATE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES MANIFEST, WITH SNOW BEING CONFINED TO
ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 9,500-10,000FT). AS SUCH, LITTLE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AS ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR
IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR OUT (PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF SNOWFALL ARE LESS
THAN 20% AND ARE CONFINED TO THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS). THUS, CHANCES OF
A WHITE CHRISTMAS ARE SADLY VERY LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE RESIDENTS
OF NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TAF SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT CAUSING TURBULENCE.
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE INVERSION
SETTING UP. LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KFMN AND
KROW. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TOMORROW WITH MORE TYPICAL HIGH CLOUDS
AND STANDING WAVE CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MID TO LOW TEENS HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BRING ABOUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ACROSS DE BACA, CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF
ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY FROM THE 20-25MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH SWCC, ERCS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE, LIMITING CONFIDENCE OF
THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS NOT NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THOUGH IT
CONTINUES TO BE COMMUNICATED THAT ELEVATED CONDITIONS REMAIN.
ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BRING ISOLATED ELEVATED CONDITIONS BASED ON THE
WIND SPEEDS (HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 20S AT THE
LOWEST). DOWNED TREES MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS ABOVE 9,500FT.
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
DOMINANT WITH SLIGHT BREEZES EACH DAY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT MOST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST NM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 31 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 56 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 61 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 59 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 64 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 41 66 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 63 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 72 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 27 51 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 56 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 55 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 46 29 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 53 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 27 58 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 36 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 31 64 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 36 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 32 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 37 67 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 36 69 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 34 71 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 38 68 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 33 69 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 36 69 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 69 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 63 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 36 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 61 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 64 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 64 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 62 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 33 64 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 35 67 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 64 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 45 69 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 38 69 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 75 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 69 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 76 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 45 74 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 75 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 74 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 38 79 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 48 74 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 45 74 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ213-214.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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