355
FXUS65 KABQ 211722 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS
EVE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT IN
AREAS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING SLOW SOUTHWEST
PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL PROVIDE SOME RELATIVE
COOLING THERE TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY'S AND WILL CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORDS AT SEVERAL LOCALES. AN UPPER HIGH, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AT AN IMPRESSIVE 590DAM AT 500MB,
WILL MOVE EAST TO OVER FAR WEST TX ON MONDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD AND INCREASE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA,
BRINGING 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS UP TO NEAR DAILY RECORDS AND
CORRELATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AT NUMEROUS
LOCALES AND MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL INCREASE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE UPPER HIGH OVER TX WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM NM ON
TUESDAY AS A POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH TAKES SHAPE, INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST TUESDAY, WITH DAILY RECORDS CHALLENGED YET AGAIN.
PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH PWATS TRENDING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND A TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS BEGINNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE THE EDGE
OFF OF TEMPERATURES WED/THU, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE
UPTREND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
ON THE WARMER SIDE, WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 9500KFT ALLOWING
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RACK UP ACROSS
THOSE PEAKS, WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN PLAY AS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE REGION. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. THE AFORMENTIONED POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVING INLAND FRI/SAT, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON
THE TRACK AND TIMING GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THAT
FEATURE BEYOND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS
ADVERTISING AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINTER IMPACTS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AND MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS. LOCALIZED WEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 35KT MAY IMPACT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH MOVES
FROM NORTHERN MX INTO TX AND EXPANDS NORTH INTO THE NM.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AROUND MID WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
THAT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL TREND UP
WED/THU ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW
AND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION,
BUT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. VENT RATES WILL BE A
MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
POOR VENTILATION FAVORING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 33 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 25 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 60 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 25 65 24 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 27 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 65 31 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 67 40 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 64 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 71 28 73 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 74 33 77 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 52 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 37 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 59 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 52 28 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 26 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 58 28 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 62 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 30 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 43 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 35 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 30 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 30 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 66 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 32 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 40 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 36 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 65 28 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 35 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 36 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 40 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 43 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 60 36 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 59 31 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 64 31 72 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 36 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 43 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 59 36 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 37 79 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 39 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 67 36 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 32 78 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 33 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 74 40 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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