082
FXUS65 KABQ 221726
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAKE A LONG AWAITED RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED BELOW
9,000FT, WITH ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED TO THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MX WILL MOVE EAST
INTO TX TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO LA ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO NM TODAY AND INCREASE PRESSURE HEIGHTS,
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FORECAST NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES PER THE KABQ
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL CORRELATE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST
DECEMBER DAYS ON RECORD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. PRESSURE HEIGHT WILL COME DOWN A
LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM NM, GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A POTENT
WEST COAST TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL BE A
SOLID 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE CHALLENGED ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH PWATS RISING TO
NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES. A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS WILL
BEGIN, BUT THE ONLY NOTABLE FORCING WILL COME FROM OROGRAPHICS AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM, DESPITE EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS, WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING
HIGH AROUND 9,500-10,500FT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN SPREAD EAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AT SKI RESORT LEVEL AND ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES, LIKE
BOBCAT PASS, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING
SNOW. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. PWATS
WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY, BUT STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD BEYOND FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. RELATIVE HIGHER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGHING PATTERN, BUT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE STATE WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS AT KTCC
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH RECORD WARMTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM ON WED/THU. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST NM FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH POOR VENTILATION FAVORING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE
TO STUBBORN NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 33 64 40 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 61 23 64 29 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 62 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 64 25 66 32 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 64 33 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 27 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 68 31 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 67 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 64 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 28 71 32 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 77 33 76 36 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 56 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 38 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 64 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 51 32 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 23 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 62 25 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 67 36 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 66 29 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 61 39 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 43 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 34 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 37 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 29 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 30 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 31 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 41 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 38 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 62 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 35 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 67 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 34 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 69 31 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 72 28 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 35 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 77 40 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 72 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 78 33 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 38 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 36 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 77 41 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 77 38 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 35 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 34 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 40 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 38 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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