096
FXUS65 KABQ 231956
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1256 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAKE A LONG AWAITED RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN SPREAD EAST
INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
BELOW 10,000FT WITH ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED TO
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BEHIND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A FEW MORE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY. HOWEVER, THE CIRRUS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT TO REACH RECORDS TODAY. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NM. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR QUICKLY, AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY LOWER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PWATS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.7 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE RECORD MAX FOR THE
DATE. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF NM AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC LOW BRINGING
ABUNDANT RAIN TO CALIFORNIA. FOR US HERE IN NM, A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM, AND
THOSE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE CHRISTMAS DAY. SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED ABOVE 10KFT, BUT RAIN WILL BE THE RULE BELOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
THUS, A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS
THESE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS MORNING)
WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM
(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
AFTER A TOASTY CHRISTMAS MORNING, MORE RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO DEEPEN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND
DOWNSLOPE (WESTERLY) FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM. ONCE AGAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NM, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE DAY AFTER
CHRISTMAS EITHER -- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, AND
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL CONTINUE. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN (PERHAPS INTO AN OPEN
WAVE) AND MOVE INTO NORCAL FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS CA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HENCE, UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO BE WEAK OVER NM AND PWATS
SHOULD TREND BACK DOWNWARD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOW, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT TRACKS FROM NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS THE CA/US BORDER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD, REACHING NORTHEAST NM EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, AND MAY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FUN FACT, THE LOW TEMPERATURE CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL
BE WARMER THAN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING CLAYTON. THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT TEND TO BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE
BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS, MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIRRUS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL QUICKLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH CIGS LOWERED TO 050 ACROSS WESTERN NM. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON TAP THROUGH AT
LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION BEYOND CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 37 59 41 / 0 5 20 40
DULCE........................... 64 29 58 34 / 0 5 20 50
CUBA............................ 61 32 57 36 / 0 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 66 30 58 35 / 0 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 66 34 58 38 / 0 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 67 28 60 35 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 58 39 / 0 0 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 67 41 62 43 / 0 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 64 36 58 40 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 71 30 62 35 / 0 5 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 76 33 65 36 / 0 5 40 50
CHAMA........................... 58 30 52 33 / 0 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 41 56 40 / 0 0 5 10
PECOS........................... 64 36 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 36 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 53 33 49 34 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 25 53 32 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 63 27 59 33 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 66 34 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 66 30 63 34 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 63 35 58 39 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 33 60 37 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 41 62 43 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 39 63 42 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 36 65 40 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 38 64 42 / 0 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 66 33 66 39 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 37 66 41 / 0 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 31 65 36 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 66 36 66 41 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 30 65 37 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 38 61 41 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 37 65 42 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 37 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 42 59 42 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 63 42 60 42 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 68 26 65 34 / 0 0 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 67 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 44 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 44 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 66 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 69 28 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 69 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 35 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 37 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 37 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 77 39 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 78 36 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 33 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 35 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 76 40 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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