279
FXUS65 KABQ 242014
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
114 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS DAYTIME AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY.
- A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENTER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED BELOW 10,000FT WITH ANY IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED
TO THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW MORE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BUT SOME
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH SLICK TRAVEL AND LOW
VISIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING CONTINUES TODAY AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. NAEFS PWATS ARE UP TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE DECEMBER! SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST AZ WHILE A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST NM. NEAR-TERM MODELS HAVE CAPTURED
THIS AREA OF RAIN POORLY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT GREATER PRECIP
COVERAGE AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED TONIGHT. EITHER WAY, 24-HR QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0.10-0.20" ON SOUTHWEST-
FACING SLOPES OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM (NBM 90TH PERCENTILE).
SPRINKLES AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FEET WITH THIS RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. A COUPLE AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER FAR NORTHWEST NM WHERE NBM PROBS FOR VSBYS <1 MILE ARE AROUND
5-10%.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S AND 40S SO IT WILL
AT LEAST FEEL MORE MOIST AND WITH MAX TEMPS STILL 15 TO 25F ABOVE
NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CO WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM. EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
25 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES. A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN RAIN/
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH 700-500MB LAYER FLOW IN
THE 40KT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS,
A TAD LESS WIND, AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. A WELL-DEFINED
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE WEST COAST OF MX WILL BECOME PARTIALLY
ABSORBED AHEAD OF THE CA TROUGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. A FEW MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND MORE BREEZES. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH ANY ACCUMS MAINLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PRECIP
COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER
THAT A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
NM SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET 20 TO 30F BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHEAST NM. HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS THE CA
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ, OR NOT. AT
THIS TIME, FOLKS WITH TRAVEL PLANS LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY SHOULD BE
ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN NM TODAY WILL LOWER
CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THRU TONIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. ICING AND TURBULENCE WILL ALSO
BE COMMON WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A 20 TO 50%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE WITH MT OBSCURATIONS
FOR THE NORTHERN MTS CHRISTMAS MORNING. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FARMINGTON AREA WITH
A 5-10% CHANCE OF IFR CLOSER TO THE CO BORDER THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO RISING HUMIDITY TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MT TOP SNOW WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM THRU TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ABOVE 10,000 FEET. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
AGAIN. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONGER NORTH WINDS,
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES THRU SATURDAY WILL
DETERIORATE TO POOR IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 59 37 57 / 30 50 20 5
DULCE........................... 35 55 32 54 / 40 70 50 20
CUBA............................ 36 58 32 54 / 10 30 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 58 33 55 / 10 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 57 31 55 / 10 20 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 63 28 60 / 5 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 60 33 59 / 20 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 42 63 36 61 / 5 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 59 33 58 / 10 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 65 31 63 / 30 30 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 40 70 35 68 / 40 30 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 49 31 47 / 20 60 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 56 35 52 / 5 20 10 0
PECOS........................... 38 58 35 56 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 54 34 50 / 5 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 50 30 45 / 0 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 52 27 49 / 0 10 10 0
TAOS............................ 33 58 31 54 / 5 10 5 0
MORA............................ 37 60 34 59 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 34 64 31 60 / 0 10 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 58 36 54 / 0 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 60 34 57 / 0 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 63 41 59 / 5 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 65 37 61 / 5 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 67 35 63 / 5 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 65 36 61 / 5 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 67 32 63 / 5 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 41 65 36 62 / 5 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 67 32 62 / 5 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 66 35 62 / 5 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 67 32 62 / 5 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 61 39 58 / 5 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 65 36 61 / 5 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 41 70 37 67 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 58 38 55 / 5 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 62 37 59 / 5 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 62 35 60 / 0 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 63 31 60 / 0 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 60 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 41 63 37 60 / 0 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 63 37 61 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 67 42 65 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 62 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 64 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 34 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 46 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 40 70 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 44 76 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 45 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 76 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 42 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 74 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 45 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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