159
FXUS65 KABQ 081953
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1253 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
- A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS TO WESTERN,
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG WINDS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BRING NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM FRIDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40.
- VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND SINGLE-DIGIT WIND
CHILLS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS COLD TO THOSE UNSHELTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
THE FIRST IN A DUO OF WINTER STORMS HAS EXITED EASTERN NM AND IS
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS HOUR. A
BREAK IN THE SNOW HAS REACHED NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
REMNANT BROKEN STRATUS CONTINUES TO STRADDLE MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EASTERN NM. SOME ISOLATED
PATCHY SNOW CONTINUES TO REACH MOSTLY WEST SLOPES OF WESTERN NM,
INCLUDING A FEW BRIEF BURSTS REACHING GALLUP. THE 2ND STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS OF SNOW WILL RE-
ENTER FAR WESTERN NM FROM AZ THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY BEGINNING AT
FARMINGTON TO GALLUP BY 2PM MST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK
BURST OF SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SUDDEN DROP IN VISIBILITY
OCCURRING IN AREAS FROM THE AZ BORDER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THIS FIRST BURST OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN H5 LOW WILL THEN
REACH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING FAVORING THE 6PM TO
8PM MST TIMEFRAME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BEGIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS, SO
ALBUQUERQUE IS IN-LINE TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO START BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL AND SNOW LEVELS FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE THIS
EVENING TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. TOOK A MID-WAY COMPROMISE B/W
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED MORE WRAP AROUND SNOW
REACHING THE ABQ METRO AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LESS
OPTIMISTIC CAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION PAST MIDNIGHT FOR FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
METRO AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO 0.7" OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WILL THUS FAVOR THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING. SANTA FE HAS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF SEEING SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT WITH TOTAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN TOWN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS ABOVE 6,500 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ENHANCING SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH, DID GO AHEAD
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
(CUBA), UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY (TAOS), AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
(CLINES CORNERS) WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE H5 LOW CLOSES OFF FURTHER FRIDAY AS IT BEGINS TO EXIT OUT OVER
NORTHEASTERN NM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE AROUND CONCHAS LAKE
TO NARA VISA, NM DURING THIS TIME AS A TROWAL FEATURE TRIES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STORM SYSTEM'S NORTHERN FLANK. STRONG H7 WINDS ARE
ALSO STILL BEING ADVERTISED OVER A SHARPENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
CONTINUES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN NM. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THIS
BRINGS VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 64/87
B/W CLAYTON AND RATON, AND LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY
56 B/W CLAYTON AND SPRINGER. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW WILL REACH FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR B/W
CLINES CORNERS AND THE TX BORDER FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO MID-DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL COLD ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT WHETHER OR NOT THE STRENGTH OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS UP IS ANOTHER ISSUE. AS SUCH, HAVE LEFT
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THE SAME FOR NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE FORECAST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS.
MEANWHILE, CAA BEHIND THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS TO WESTERN NM WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 10S ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COMBINED
WITH THE WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TOWARD 0F
IN THESE AREAS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE THIS
MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN CATRON COUNTY
AND WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
IS LIKELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO OR
BELOW 0F.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
AFTER A COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES REBOUND AT A
STEADY PACE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY
START OFF 5-10F BELOW NORMAL, REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.
HIGHS CLIMB A BIT FURTHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. ALL THE WHILE, CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY WITH PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS. THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP SHOP ALONG AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH STOUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AND TROUGHING DIGGING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT. THIS WILL FAVOR
COLD FRONTS BACKING INTO EASTERN NM MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
A BREAK B/W LAST NIGHT'S FIRST ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER AND THE
NEXT ARRIVING WINTER WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. VFR WITH MOSTLY SKC DOMINATES EASTERN NM
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR HOLDING ONTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS. SHOWERS OF MOSTLY SNOW
WILL CROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFMN-KGUP FIRST
UP NEAR 21Z WITH SHOWERS OF SNOW BRINGING A RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS FIRST BURST OF SNOW WILL ADVANCE TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AT KSAF-KABQ-KAEG BY 00Z TO 01Z. SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO START ABOVE THE KABQ AND KAEG TERMINALS BEFORE LOWERING
TO VALLEY FLOORS NEAR 04Z TO 06Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SURPASSING A QUARTER INCH AT KABQ IS LIKELY
NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING SNOW WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, AND
THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
FRIDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCING LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM KRTN TO KCAO AT MINIMUM, POTENTIALLY SOUTHWARD IN
BRIEF PATCHES TO KLVS TO KTCC AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. VFR
LOOKS TO HOLD ON TO SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
WINTER WEATHER IS CROSSING NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONGSIDE WINDY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOST AREAS. PEAK
GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT A TAD BEFORE NORTHWESTERLIES RETURN FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NM. THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A RESULT OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT SATURDAY AND BEYOND BUT
ALONGSIDE LESS WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 37 12 37 / 70 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 38 2 40 / 70 50 10 0
CUBA............................ 18 30 6 32 / 90 70 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 31 -5 35 / 80 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 16 29 3 37 / 90 30 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 33 -3 40 / 80 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 17 26 0 35 / 90 40 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 25 34 16 38 / 70 20 10 0
DATIL........................... 20 27 9 37 / 80 20 5 0
RESERVE......................... 15 34 -2 45 / 90 30 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 20 44 4 50 / 100 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 16 31 6 36 / 70 60 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 32 13 34 / 80 70 30 0
PECOS........................... 21 33 9 38 / 80 90 40 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 31 9 36 / 60 80 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 15 22 4 29 / 70 90 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 25 -16 35 / 80 90 30 0
TAOS............................ 20 34 2 38 / 70 80 20 0
MORA............................ 20 32 4 42 / 80 90 30 0
ESPANOLA........................ 25 41 6 40 / 80 80 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 25 33 13 34 / 80 80 40 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 35 12 34 / 80 80 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 36 19 36 / 90 60 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 38 19 38 / 90 60 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 41 15 40 / 90 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 39 19 38 / 90 50 20 0
BELEN........................... 28 41 9 40 / 80 50 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 39 18 39 / 90 60 30 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 40 9 40 / 90 50 20 0
CORRALES........................ 28 39 17 40 / 90 60 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 41 12 40 / 90 50 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 35 19 35 / 90 70 30 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 39 19 39 / 90 50 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 45 15 45 / 60 20 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 31 14 33 / 90 70 40 0
TIJERAS......................... 24 33 17 34 / 90 70 40 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 23 34 12 35 / 80 60 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 35 4 36 / 80 70 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 22 31 11 34 / 70 80 30 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 24 35 13 37 / 80 60 30 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 36 13 39 / 60 50 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 28 40 18 43 / 60 40 30 0
RUIDOSO......................... 23 36 15 40 / 50 30 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 18 24 4 36 / 70 90 10 0
RATON........................... 21 27 3 40 / 70 90 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 23 32 1 39 / 60 80 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 22 30 5 42 / 70 90 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 29 12 41 / 60 90 20 0
ROY............................. 25 31 6 38 / 60 90 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 29 40 12 46 / 60 80 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 37 15 44 / 60 80 30 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 39 14 49 / 60 70 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 44 19 48 / 30 40 30 0
PORTALES........................ 31 46 19 48 / 10 30 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 41 14 48 / 30 50 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 33 52 21 49 / 5 20 20 0
PICACHO......................... 28 46 19 48 / 20 20 20 0
ELK............................. 23 44 13 48 / 20 10 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR NMZ204-216-223.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ227-230.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ215-
228-229-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ202-206-208.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ205-226.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ208.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ203-210-211-
213-214-221.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ212-218.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ223-233-239.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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