680
FXUS65 KABQ 090831
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
131 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
- A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IS
BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING, SHIFTING
TO NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WINDS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING NEAR "WHITE-OUT"
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 40.
- VERY COLD AND HAZARDOUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE- DIGITS, ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO, ARE FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
A VERY COLD CORE UPPER LOW HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER NORTHWESTERN NM,
JUST EAST OF GALLUP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS NM THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS
BY THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SPILLING INTO THE STATE, GIVEN
THE POLEWARD ORIGINS OF THIS LOW, AND THIS IS ALLOWING SNOW TO FALL
INTO MANY AND MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF NM
WILL CERTAINLY RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN AND UPPER
RIO GRANDE WILL RECEIVE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
INCHES, MAINLY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN INCLUDES THE RATON PASS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, AS
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN. THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS OF CO ARE ALREADY RACKING UP ACCUMULATION, AND THIS WILL
SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS LOW LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS SPIKES AND THE TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT)
MOVES OVERHEAD. SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST BANDED
MESOSCALE SNOW MAXIMA NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE US 65/87 AND 56/412 CORRIDORS THAT WILL OBSERVE HARSH
CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL ACT AS HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS ON THESE TRAVEL CORRIDORS, AND PERIODS OF "WHITE-OUT"
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF COLFAX AND UNION
COUNTIES, PERHAPS SAGGING INTO PORTIONS OF MORA AND NORTHERN
HARDING AS WELL. THE CURRENT BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR EXTENSIONS IN TIME WILL BE MADE FOR
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND HIGHLAND ZONES (EDGEWOOD, SEDILLO, CLINES
CORNERS), AS UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MAY
REGENERATE SHOWERS THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 15
DEGREES COLDER TODAY WITH MANY ZONES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
30'S.
SNOW WILL HAVE DWINDLED AND MOSTLY ENDED BY DUSK WITH A FEW
LINGERING CENTRAL HIGHLAND/MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BEING THE EXCEPTION INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF DARKNESS TONIGHT, AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THIS TIME. THE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS COLD
START WILL STUNT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE DRY, MOSTLY
CLEAR, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS. ANOTHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EVENT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COLD AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME, A WEAK VORT LOBE WOULD HAVE
BEEN SHED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A DRY CUT-OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA, POSING NO IMPACT TO NM WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANDER OVER THE BAJA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY NUDGING EASTWARD INTO MEXICO'S
MAINLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM WHILE
TEMPERATURES RESPOND UPWARD, REACHING MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY
MONDAY. WHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW IS FINALLY TREKKING EASTWARD, AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (~588 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB) UPPER HIGH WILL BE
BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CA WHILE A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE BACK TO OPEN PACIFIC WATERS WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH
DEEPENS WITH MORE COLD POLAR AIR SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO IT BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT TO THE ROCKIES AND NM BY WEDNESDAY AND MORE-SO
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WOULD ARRIVE
(ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND ONE EARLY FRIDAY) WITH THEIR PARENT UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS NOT BEING PRODUCTIVE PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW DOES HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF BUCKLING MORE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (SAT, JAN 17), PARTICULARLY AMONG THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
AND GEFS MEMBERS. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION INTRUSION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
A WRAPAROUND BAND OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHWEST, INCLUDING KFMN AND KGUP, OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTH CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COME JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SNOW/ BLOWING
SNOW RESULTING IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM,
INCLUDING KCAO, KRTN, AND KAXX, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
I-40 AND A SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REACH KTCC AT AROUND
1630Z. POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TO
REACH KTCC AND RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW. THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH KROW
AROUND 20Z WITH VFR LOW CLOUDS IN IT'S WAKE. SNOW AND IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM TAPERS OFF AT AROUND 22Z. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE SLOPES OF HE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AT AROUND 22Z AND THE RESULTANT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MID FRIDAY EVENING
AT AROUND 02Z WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NM IN A
ZONE FROM KSKX TO KGNT TO KONM. KSAF IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AIRPORT MINIMUM CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH TIMES OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 21Z TO 02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES NM, AND A
MUCH COLDER POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES WILL FALL WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN
SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS. STRONGER WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINTRY CONDITIONS, BUT ARE CERTAINLY NOT PROJECTED TO
CAUSE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY,
PRECIPITATION, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY ONWARD. WITH A CUT-OFF LOW AND PSEUDO-REX BLOCK PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. PRESCRIBED BURNING INTERESTS WILL
BE FACED WITH LESS EFFICIENT MIXING AND POOR SMOKE VENTILATION AND
DISPERSION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AT BAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW DRY AND MODEST BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 12 36 16 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 35 1 39 8 / 40 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 29 7 34 11 / 50 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 31 -3 35 2 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 3 38 12 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 34 0 41 4 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 28 1 36 10 / 30 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 35 17 38 20 / 5 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 9 37 15 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 2 45 10 / 20 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 8 50 13 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 3 36 12 / 60 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 14 34 20 / 60 30 0 0
PECOS........................... 32 7 39 16 / 70 40 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 7 35 16 / 90 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 22 3 29 12 / 90 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 -15 34 -8 / 90 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 34 2 38 8 / 80 20 0 0
MORA............................ 30 5 43 15 / 80 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 9 41 12 / 60 30 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 13 35 19 / 70 40 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 14 36 15 / 70 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 20 38 24 / 60 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 18 41 20 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 16 44 17 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 20 41 21 / 40 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 43 12 42 13 / 30 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 39 19 41 20 / 50 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 12 42 13 / 40 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 39 18 42 19 / 40 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 14 42 15 / 40 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 36 19 37 22 / 60 40 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 38 19 41 20 / 40 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 18 46 20 / 10 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 14 34 19 / 60 40 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 17 35 19 / 60 40 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 12 36 15 / 70 40 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 7 38 7 / 70 40 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 11 33 17 / 60 40 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 13 38 14 / 50 40 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 14 38 16 / 40 30 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 19 44 20 / 30 30 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 16 40 20 / 20 30 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 5 36 13 / 100 5 0 0
RATON........................... 29 3 40 11 / 90 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 3 39 9 / 80 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 8 42 16 / 70 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 13 41 19 / 90 10 0 0
ROY............................. 32 9 40 15 / 80 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 15 48 17 / 70 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 18 45 18 / 50 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 40 15 49 18 / 50 20 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 44 19 49 22 / 20 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 47 15 49 19 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 17 48 17 / 40 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 53 20 49 19 / 10 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 18 48 20 / 20 10 0 0
ELK............................. 43 14 48 16 / 10 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ204-
212-216-218-223.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ227-228-
230-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ202-206-208.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ201-205-226.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ208.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ203-210-
211-213-214-221.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ215-
229.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71
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