713
FXUS65 KABQ 101130
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 428 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
- VERY COLD AIR WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM SATURDAY MORNING.
- PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY FROM FREEZING FOG COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOS ALAMOS THROUGH SANTA FE ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF COMING TO AN END. A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FINALLY EXITING THE STATE WITH JUST ENOUGH POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION TO SUPPORT THE NOTED SNOW SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL END THE SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE GILA FOREST
AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. VALLEY AREAS
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS WILL
APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST NOT QUITE THERE.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SUNDAY MORNING STILL ON THE COLD SIDE BUT NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS SATURDAY.
THE OTHER HAZARD OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG IN
THESE SAME VALLEYS. FREEZING FOG WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED THE
PROBLEM BEING THE DRY AIR. DEWPOINTS IN A LOT OF AREAS ARE IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CONTINUED DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
AS IT DOES SO VORTICITY SHEARS OUT WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
CLOSED LOW THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
LOW THEN PUSHES ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
RESULTS WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER AMPLIFIED DUE TO A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THE PATTERN
RESEMBLES THAT OF A MCFARLAND PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS THROUGH THE PLAINS DOWN THROUGH TEXAS. AS A RESULT, A
WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO E NM ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH DROPS TEMPERATURES MORE
ACROSS THE STATE. UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS REMAIN RATHER DRY SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK DESPITE
PERIODS WHERE LIFT IS INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS OR LOW LYING AREAS
DESPITE RECENT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
NO AREAS OF ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 17 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 9 49 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 35 11 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 5 42 5 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 12 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 8 45 6 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 9 42 12 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 21 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 16 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 45 11 50 12 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 50 13 55 15 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 13 43 17 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 20 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 16 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 16 42 20 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 12 36 16 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 -15 41 -11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 37 3 44 8 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 14 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 41 11 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 18 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 16 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 24 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 20 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 18 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 22 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 42 14 47 14 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 14 48 15 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 20 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 16 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 23 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 21 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 21 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 20 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 20 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 16 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 11 47 7 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 17 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 15 45 17 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 16 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 21 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 21 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 13 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 37 11 44 15 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 36 8 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 16 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 40 19 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 39 15 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 47 18 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 20 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 19 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 22 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 20 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 18 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 19 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 21 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 17 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ205-
207>209.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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