195
FXUS65 KABQ 110506 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1006 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
- VERY COLD AIR WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY
MORNING.
- LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG
WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN UPPER HIGH OFFSHORE OF SOCAL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
EAST AND EXPAND A RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM
THROUGH SUNDAY, PROVIDING A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF MIXING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL KEEP A LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TRAP WATER VAPOR FROM
MELTING SNOW NEAR THE SURFACE, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
WHILE THE FORECAST OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT FITS WITH OUR
CONCEPTUAL MODEL, THERE IS A LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ASSOCIATED MOS. SO, LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE (20-30%) AT THIS TIME ON THE NEED FOR A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY'S AND GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE UPPER HIGH OFFSHORE OF SOCAL WILL CENTER OVER NORTHERN CA BY
MONDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 588DAM AT 500MB AND EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NM, WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE
MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN US FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AND
ALLOWING FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK WEST OVER THE PACIFIC
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, ALLOWING STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION AND AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE
12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER NM/AZ
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INTERACTING WITH UPSLOPE FROM THE
BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NM.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND WE HAVE
VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT FRI/SAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS THAT PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT A BREEZY NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND WILL
DEVELOP AT KSAF AROUND SUNRISE. THESE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTN. CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NM SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SLOW WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON FRI/SAT. OTHERWISE, A VERY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND POOR
VENTILATION THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 10 40 17 43 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 48 13 52 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 9 41 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 3 45 6 47 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 9 42 13 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 6 45 8 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 10 42 10 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 21 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 16 41 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 11 49 12 55 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 14 56 16 58 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 15 42 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 20 40 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 15 43 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 8 40 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 8 34 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -15 39 -6 46 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 5 42 10 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 15 47 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 13 44 14 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 18 41 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 14 43 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 22 44 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 46 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 48 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 20 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 15 46 12 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 20 47 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 14 46 13 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 19 48 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 15 47 14 49 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 20 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 46 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 22 49 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 17 40 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 16 42 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 16 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 9 46 9 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 15 42 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 15 44 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 46 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 49 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 18 45 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 13 39 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 8 41 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 6 43 12 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 12 47 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 19 46 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 15 46 18 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 15 55 19 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 50 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 16 55 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 20 54 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 18 54 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 52 17 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 53 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 22 50 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 18 48 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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