734
FXUS65 KABQ 140821
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
- SEVERAL WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL CREATE BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS AND COOLING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND MONDAY. DESPITE THESE FRONTS, DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 590DM H5 RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A
515DM H5 LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER NM IN THIS PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
HELP TO FORCE A FEW COLD FRONTS INTO NM. THE FIRST FRONT HAS MADE
IT THRU EASTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING NEAR THE RATON RIDGE.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL
JUST NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE STRONG INVERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST. MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 1009MB OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY AS
700-500MB LAYER NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT OVER
NM. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS THRU THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL HELP DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARM TEMPS 10 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL
OVER EASTERN NM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU MORE OF NM
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL TREND MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR
FRIDAY BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU NM SATURDAY AND REINFORCE
THE COOLER TEMPS. THE COOLEST AIR WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST NM WITH
PERIODIC BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALL AREAS WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
BY SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SURGE SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
EASTERN AREAS AS A RESULT, DIMINISHING BY 18Z AS STRONGER WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT (<10KTS), WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NM AROUND 12Z AND
THERE IS A <10% CHANCE THAT THESE LOW CIGS PUSH FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT,
CLEARING AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PERIODIC COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU THE AREA THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WITH BREEZY WINDS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE THESE FRONTS. MIN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25% EACH DAY WITH FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES EACH NIGHT.
VENTILATION RATES WILL REMAIN POOR AREAWIDE ON MOST DAYS EXCEPT FOR
POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VALUES AT TIMES OVER EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 23 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 19 52 15 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 22 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 15 55 15 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 23 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 16 59 18 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 22 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 49 25 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 21 64 21 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 24 66 24 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 22 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 49 26 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 27 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 22 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 14 49 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 19 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 26 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 23 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 30 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 26 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 33 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 30 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 27 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 30 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 29 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 55 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 25 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 50 31 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 29 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 28 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 28 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 30 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 26 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 19 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 26 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 27 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 27 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 23 58 18 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 49 20 61 18 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 19 62 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 24 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 30 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 52 24 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 25 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 28 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 26 70 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 28 68 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 28 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 25 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 27 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 56 30 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 26 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16
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