698
FXUS65 KABQ 200941
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS.
- STARK PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
PACIFIC LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SNOW, WINTRY MIX, AND
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE US. SFC PRESSURE FALLS IN
RESPONSE TO DOWNSLOPING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARM TEMPS UP IN EASTERN
NM, WITH 24-HR TEMP CHANGES AS HIGH AS 25 DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM
AS WELL, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TEMPERATURES CHANGE IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND KNOCK TEMPS DOWN 5-10 DEGREES
AGAIN WEDNESDAY WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AGAIN HAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
WINTER WILL MAKE A RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW AND AN A
ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINE TO CREATE MESSY WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS A
PACIFIC LOW STRADDLES THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SENDS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND
WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE A
SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH EASTERN NM. AT THE SAME TIME, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD, DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
(GENERALLY LIGHT) PRECIPITATION. P-TYPE NORTH OF I-40 WILL REMAIN
ALL SNOW GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER, BUT THERE IS
A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEASTERN
NM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ON THE
TABLE, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY FAVOR SLEET IN THE ROSWELL
AREA, WITH THE MAIN BAND OF FREEZING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. SINCE THE
STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. BY SATURDAY, PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL SNOW IN EASTERN NM, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THESE AREAS NOTABLY HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SLOW LEVELS, AS EVIDENCED
BY A A NEARLY 3KFT DIFFERENCE IN SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE IN ALBUQUERQUE ON SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEAR TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AND THAT IS BACKED UP BY THE
CURRENT 50TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM WHICH HAS 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND UP TO 10 OVER THE PEAKS.
90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OF 6"+ ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH A FEW
INCHES EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN
WHAT HAS BEEN AN OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WINTER. FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND CURRENT HIGHS ARE
AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, THIS WILL
REPLACE THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS. A WARMING TREND IS FAVORED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
PREVAILING WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY LIGHT THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
MODEST NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF. BREEZY WESTERLIES WILL
FAVOR A RETURN FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 15-20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES OTHER THAN ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WILL
PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH VERY MINOR
IMPROVEMENTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WETTER AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER PACIFIC LOW COMBINES WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IN MID AND LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. WETTING
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (70%+ CHANCE) ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH A LOWER CHANCE (30-70%) FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FAVORED FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 20 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 13 49 14 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 19 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 14 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 14 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 52 21 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 24 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 19 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 63 23 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 14 43 17 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 24 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 49 21 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 20 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 16 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 7 43 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 47 12 48 13 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 19 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 53 18 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 21 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 30 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 25 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 22 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 52 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 49 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 26 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 26 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 22 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 15 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 20 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 28 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 53 14 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 14 48 17 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 14 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 18 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 22 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 18 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 20 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 22 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 23 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 22 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 53 22 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 24 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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