363
FXUS65 KABQ 211130 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS, CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME BRIEFLY STRONG CROSSWINDS ALONG I-40 NEAR THE TX BORDER,
BUT WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SFC HIGH SCOOTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS AROUND THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THANKS TO SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT
AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THE COLLISION OF THESE AIRMASSES
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL QUICKLY EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR THE SEEDER-FEEDER EFFECT TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, RESULTING IN RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ALONG I-40. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN SOUTHEASTERN NM REMAINS ON THE
TABLE, BUT RECENT MODELED THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIG AREA OF UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALL SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE
7,500 FEET, BUT THE SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES)
REMAINS 2-4KFT, SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE FLOOR OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OR AS HIGH AS 7,500 FEET DURING THIS TIME. THIS
LARGE SPREAD IS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE WESTERN
EXPANSION OF THE COLD FRONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THE SFC
LOW IN ARIZONA IS IN A GOOD SPOT TO PUSH THIS FRONT FURTHER WEST
THAN MOST MODELS SUGGEST, RESULTING IN A EXPANSION OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS
WOULD ALSO CREATE STRONG GAP WINDS IN ALBUQUERQUE AND THIS DRYING
WIND WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO,
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH A QUICK, BUT IMPACTFUL, BURST OF SNOW WITH ITS
PASSAGE. ANOTHER PLAYER IN ALL OF THIS IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
MORE AND COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, DRYING THE AREA AS IT DOES SO. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER
WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
AREA WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW. AN
EXPANSION IS LIKELY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS DETAILS GET
CLEARER.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS
MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED ON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS LIKELY (40-90% CHANCE) REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF EASTERN NM. FURTHERMORE, THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING IS 20-60% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES, IT IS
A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE NOW IN CASE YOU LOSE POWER
DURING THIS STORM. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR 48+ HOURS, WITH TEMPS NOT RISING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NM, WITH
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING TO TREND WEAKER. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE STORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH POCKETS OF FAIR VENTILATION
IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY, THEN IN EAST-CENTRAL AREAS THURSDAY. A
STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 23 47 29 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 49 16 50 22 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 48 24 50 26 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 53 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 56 22 57 23 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 58 27 55 28 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 54 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 54 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 62 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 64 29 64 31 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 44 17 45 21 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 28 48 29 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 48 26 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 22 40 23 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 13 46 13 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 47 15 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 27 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 28 49 29 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 24 50 26 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 33 53 34 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 53 22 56 26 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 53 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 23 56 26 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 54 28 55 30 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 49 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 57 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 49 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 25 52 24 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 18 54 19 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 24 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 54 32 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 22 50 11 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 49 19 53 14 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 53 19 55 16 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 24 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 25 48 14 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 46 24 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 26 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 30 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 27 59 19 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 27 61 23 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 53 27 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 24 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 24 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 29 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ210>212-214-218-221>224-226-229-232>240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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