610
FXUS65 KABQ 230546 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA WITH ZONAL
FLOW OVERLAYING NM. A CONTINUED STREAM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FEEDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH LOTS OF ALTOSTRATUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS PERIODICALLY MOVING OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO TURN NORTHERLY AT CLAYTON, BUT THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR IS STILL IN THE DAKOTAS AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE FROM
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL SPREAD INTO MORE OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM WITH
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING AND SLOWLY LOWERING CLOUD BASES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE, BUT MOST REMAINING AREAS WILL BE MILDER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE ENOUGH
SATURATION AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO BEGIN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7,500-8,500 FEET IN THOSE ZONES). THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALSO SEEING AN ONSET OF
SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL STAYING HIGH AS WARM, MOIST AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS, THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKING AS A ~1048 MB
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO MN, IA, AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SEVERAL
PLACES IN THE EAST WILL MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING FOR DAILY HIGHS, BUT
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE
DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION (DRIZZLE/FLURRIES) IN
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE VERY LIGHT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES WITH A
FEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE NORTHEAST, BUT THE ONSET OF
IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. TRIED TO KEEP THE HAZARD STATEMENT
AS GENERIC AND SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE, BUT MANY LOCALES WILL LIKELY SEE
IMPACTS AT DIFFERENT ONSET TIMES, EVEN LATER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS IN THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SONORAN AND
CHIHUAHUA DESERTS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS GAINING A
FIRMER PLANTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL START TO BECOME MORE SUBDUED, AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN
AND SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES (SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY 6,500 TO 7,500 FT AND LOWERING LATE IN THE DAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT). WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED, THIS SATURDAY TIME FRAME IS WHEN MUCH OF THE DEEPER MID
TO HIGH LEVEL WILL GET JUXTAPOSED OVER THE COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO ENHANCE COOLING,
CONDENSATION, AND PRECIPITATION. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL KEEP PRECIP FROZEN IN MOST ZONES WITH
HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS, BUT A WARM NOSE IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUCH AS CURRY, ROOSEVELT, AND CHAVES COUNTIES COULD INTRODUCE BRIEF
MELTING ALOFT BEFORE HYDROMETEORS REFREEZE AT THE SURFACE (FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE/SLEET). FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NBM P-TYPE PROBABILITIES
SHOW A WARMER TREND WITH THIS NOSE OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, AND
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED INTO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR THESE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NM, EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH ALL WESTERN ZONES HAVING TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AND
FINALLY TURNING MUCH COLDER WHILE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN FRIGID AND
SNOW (OR MIXED IN THE SOUTHEAST). PRECIPITATION SHOULD REALLY
DWINDLE BY NOON WITH DRIER, COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL THEN LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO READINGS BEING COMMON AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKING A BIT MORE WESTERLY ON
MONDAY. AN UPSTREAM RIDGE COMES INTO THE PICTURE ON TUESDAY, THEN
CROSSES NM INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL OFFER SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, BRINGING A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAT COULD
HELP EAT AWAY SNOW PACK, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW MELTING
PROCESS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, BUT THIS WILL PROVE
TO BE CHALLENGING NEXT WEEK. THE WEDNESDAY RIDGE WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEFS
FAMILY SHOWING A BIT MORE SHARPNESS WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SMATTERING OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN NORTHERN ZONES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL, WITH LOWER CIGS PUSHING
IN FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS,
WHILE VERY LOW CLOUD BASES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DROP
ABRUPTLY BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER INCREASING
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET
IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN
THE EAST. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY
RESULT IN MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT SITES IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUCH AS KROW AND KCVN, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE IS
LOW IN THESE AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TO ARRIVE.
THE WINTER STORM WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND MORE FRIGID AIR INCOMING SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. CONDITIONS CLEAR
OUT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FORECAST TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.25 INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT, OFFERING SOME MUCH NEEDED SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP, BUT SHOULD START TO MAKE
SOME GAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW PACK MELTING AWAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 28 49 32 39 / 0 20 80 80
DULCE........................... 21 45 26 36 / 0 60 100 100
CUBA............................ 26 45 26 35 / 0 60 90 100
GALLUP.......................... 22 49 28 38 / 0 30 80 100
EL MORRO........................ 28 48 27 38 / 0 50 90 100
GRANTS.......................... 23 49 26 41 / 0 50 90 100
QUEMADO......................... 28 48 29 39 / 0 60 80 100
MAGDALENA....................... 34 50 31 43 / 0 60 80 100
DATIL........................... 30 45 30 40 / 0 60 80 100
RESERVE......................... 26 46 31 44 / 0 80 80 100
GLENWOOD........................ 31 50 35 48 / 10 90 90 100
CHAMA........................... 21 38 21 31 / 0 60 90 100
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 42 26 32 / 0 30 90 100
PECOS........................... 23 40 19 26 / 0 30 90 100
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 42 21 31 / 0 20 80 100
RED RIVER....................... 23 34 16 25 / 0 20 80 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 40 8 29 / 0 20 80 100
TAOS............................ 19 45 22 32 / 0 20 80 100
MORA............................ 21 40 18 29 / 0 20 90 100
ESPANOLA........................ 23 47 27 35 / 0 30 90 100
SANTA FE........................ 30 43 24 29 / 0 30 90 100
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 44 23 30 / 0 30 90 100
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 50 31 37 / 0 40 100 100
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 51 32 39 / 0 40 90 100
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 53 33 41 / 0 40 90 100
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 50 32 38 / 0 30 90 100
BELEN........................... 25 53 34 43 / 0 40 90 100
BERNALILLO...................... 29 51 30 38 / 0 30 90 100
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 25 53 33 41 / 0 40 90 100
CORRALES........................ 29 51 31 38 / 0 30 90 100
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 53 34 41 / 0 40 90 100
PLACITAS........................ 33 50 29 37 / 0 30 100 100
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 50 31 38 / 0 30 90 100
SOCORRO......................... 31 52 35 46 / 0 60 80 100
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 45 26 33 / 0 40 100 100
TIJERAS......................... 32 48 27 35 / 0 40 100 100
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 46 23 31 / 0 40 100 100
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 47 21 29 / 0 40 100 100
CLINES CORNERS.................. 22 39 17 19 / 0 40 90 100
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 48 26 35 / 0 50 100 100
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 48 26 36 / 0 60 100 100
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 49 33 39 / 0 80 100 100
RUIDOSO......................... 36 43 27 32 / 0 90 100 100
CAPULIN......................... 13 24 4 14 / 0 10 60 60
RATON........................... 14 31 9 17 / 0 10 50 70
SPRINGER........................ 15 33 9 19 / 0 10 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 36 13 19 / 0 20 80 90
CLAYTON......................... 17 21 1 10 / 0 30 80 70
ROY............................. 19 27 7 13 / 0 30 70 80
CONCHAS......................... 23 33 9 16 / 0 40 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 22 37 13 18 / 0 50 90 100
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 31 7 13 / 0 40 90 100
CLOVIS.......................... 26 34 9 13 / 0 50 90 100
PORTALES........................ 25 36 10 16 / 0 50 80 100
FORT SUMNER..................... 23 38 13 19 / 0 60 80 100
ROSWELL......................... 29 43 24 25 / 0 80 90 100
PICACHO......................... 29 41 21 25 / 0 70 90 100
ELK............................. 31 47 24 29 / 5 90 90 100
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
NMZ210>218-221>224-226-229-232>240.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
NMZ227-228-230-231.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ207-208-219-225-241.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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