029
FXUS65 KABQ 231819 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1119 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WINTER STORM HAZARD CHANGES:
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING OTHER THAN CHANGING
THE SEGMENTS AROUND A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE REMAINING SEGMENT OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY, WITH THE START TIME PUSHED BACK
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE
CHUSKAS, NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS, AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WERE ALSO
ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WARM, MOIST PACIFIC
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD, DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTHEAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN EASTERN NM AS WINDS SLOWLY
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG 1048MB SFC HIGH THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWER AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISE. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING, RAPIDLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
STATE. THE MOST INTENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN THE 800-600MB
LAYER, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES HERE, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD
DRIER, SUGGESTING MORE GAPS IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE 700MB LAYER WILL INCREASE SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS IN THE EAST AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY SLOWLY TRIES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS,
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF
0.1". THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SPARED FROM THE
FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS HOVERING JUST A TAD ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COLDER AND NOT AS LUCKY. FURTHERMORE, HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE RUIDOSO AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHALLOW, COLD AIRMASS BANKS UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. IF THIS AIRMASS MANAGES TO SQUEAK AROUND THE SACRAMENTO AND
CAPITAN MOUNTAINS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE ON TAP
FOR THE TULAROSA VALLEY AS WELL. ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET, WITH THE
HREF INDICATING THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM ARE SHOWING A VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 700MB, DESPITE RAPIDLY
DROPPING SFC TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS REASON, BOTH THE NBM AND HREF
ARE SHOWING LOW PROBS (10-30%) FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE RAPIDLY DROPPING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 20S AND TEENS. FREEZING RAIN AT THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
EXCEEDINGLY RARE SO SKEPTICISM IS QUITE HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBATING ITS PROGRESS. THAT BEING SAID,
THE SNOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STARK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BOUNDARY, CREATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SNOW
LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE AREAS JUST EAST. THE
PACIFIC LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SNOW LEVELS DROP AS 700MB TEMPS
FINALLY PLUMMET, WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN
THIS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RGV, WITH 1-2" THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID, THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE BOTH TRENDED COLDER
ON SATURDAY WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLE, SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICKER TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE, WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -10F IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS, INCLUDING CLOVIS AND CLAYTON. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE STATE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10
TO AS MUCH AS 35 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS
SNOW DENSITY TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DROPPING TEMPS. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HIGHS MAY TREND DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO
SNOW COVER, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT DOWNSLOPING
BREEZE WILL PROMOTE QUICK MELTING ACROSS THE EAST. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES LATE WEEK WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~20%) OF A WEAK
WINTER STORM EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW GRAZING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. IN
THE EASTERN HALF, AN ARCTIC FRONT IS ARRIVING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MORE-SO OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC BREAKS BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO
(CEILINGS COMMONLY DROPPING BETWEEN 400 TO 1000 FT AND VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 1/2 TO 2 MILES). MEANWHILE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR (CEILINGS
LESS THAN 3,000 FT AND VISIBILITY BELOW 5 MILES) WILL BE MORE
COMMON IN THE WESTERN HALF, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW
6,500 TO 7,500 FEET) WHERE RAIN IS MORE COMMON. MOUNTAIN PEAK
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER MOST NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RANGES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE (5 TO 15
KT).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
POOR VENTILATION PREVAILS IN MOST AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY, EXCEPT
FOR POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION IMPROVES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST IMPROVEMENTS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WINTER STORM, WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY MODERATE EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR IMPROVEMENTS MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 32 43 17 / 30 80 70 20
DULCE........................... 43 26 39 5 / 60 90 90 50
CUBA............................ 44 26 36 8 / 60 90 80 60
GALLUP.......................... 46 26 41 9 / 50 80 80 50
EL MORRO........................ 44 29 38 10 / 60 80 80 70
GRANTS.......................... 47 26 42 12 / 60 80 80 70
QUEMADO......................... 46 31 40 12 / 70 80 80 70
MAGDALENA....................... 48 34 45 21 / 70 80 80 80
DATIL........................... 44 31 42 16 / 70 80 80 80
RESERVE......................... 47 32 48 16 / 80 80 80 80
GLENWOOD........................ 51 35 51 21 / 80 90 80 80
CHAMA........................... 38 23 33 4 / 60 90 90 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 27 33 14 / 40 90 90 70
PECOS........................... 39 18 27 7 / 30 90 90 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 25 33 8 / 30 80 80 80
RED RIVER....................... 35 15 26 2 / 30 80 80 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 8 31 -8 / 30 80 80 80
TAOS............................ 41 23 34 7 / 30 80 80 70
MORA............................ 39 16 29 6 / 30 80 80 80
ESPANOLA........................ 44 21 35 8 / 40 90 80 70
SANTA FE........................ 39 24 30 11 / 30 90 90 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 22 31 9 / 40 90 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 34 39 16 / 40 90 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 33 40 17 / 50 90 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 29 42 10 / 50 90 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 33 40 17 / 50 90 80 80
BELEN........................... 52 34 47 18 / 50 90 80 80
BERNALILLO...................... 49 30 39 13 / 50 90 90 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 31 44 13 / 50 90 80 80
CORRALES........................ 49 31 40 14 / 50 90 80 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 33 45 17 / 50 90 80 80
PLACITAS........................ 46 30 36 14 / 40 90 90 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 32 40 16 / 50 90 80 80
SOCORRO......................... 52 37 49 23 / 60 80 80 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 26 32 11 / 40 90 90 80
TIJERAS......................... 45 29 33 12 / 40 90 90 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 23 29 8 / 40 90 90 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 18 29 5 / 40 90 80 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 15 21 6 / 40 90 80 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 26 34 7 / 60 90 90 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 26 36 7 / 70 90 90 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 34 41 13 / 80 90 80 90
RUIDOSO......................... 44 25 33 10 / 80 90 90 90
CAPULIN......................... 21 4 16 3 / 20 60 50 60
RATON........................... 27 7 18 3 / 10 60 60 70
SPRINGER........................ 28 8 20 5 / 10 60 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 12 20 5 / 10 80 80 70
CLAYTON......................... 21 3 12 6 / 30 80 70 70
ROY............................. 23 6 14 5 / 30 80 70 80
CONCHAS......................... 33 8 17 6 / 40 80 80 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 11 17 6 / 40 90 80 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 6 16 4 / 40 80 80 90
CLOVIS.......................... 35 10 16 6 / 50 80 80 90
PORTALES........................ 37 9 19 5 / 60 80 80 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 11 20 8 / 50 90 80 90
ROSWELL......................... 42 22 26 11 / 80 90 90 90
PICACHO......................... 43 21 27 9 / 80 90 90 80
ELK............................. 49 21 31 8 / 80 90 90 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ202>204-206-208.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210>218-
221>224-229-232>234-237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ227-228-230-
231.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ207-219-225-241.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52
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