640
FXUS65 KABQ 240834
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
134 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
- SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW, WINTRY
MIX, FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
WITH COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...
THE SEASON'S MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THUS FAR HAS SETTLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
FEATURING A WELL ADVERTISED SHALLOW SURFACE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS HAS REACHED
INTO THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S. MEANWHILE, A 558DM
H5 CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SPIN UP
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
IS FALLING AS A MIX OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AS A MIXED PHASE OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, AND AS SNOW
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD TX. THERE'S ALSO A THIRD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER NV/UT HELPING TO BRING FURTHER SHOWERS INTO NORTHWESTERN NM.
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE STATE, WILL BREAK THIS DISCUSSION INTO SEPARATE REGIONS TO
DISCUSS THE VARYING WEATHER TYPES AND RESULTING IMPACTS. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND EASTERN NM GETS FIRST DIBS, AND AS MENTIONED
THIS AIRMASS HAS REACHED TO AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO'S AND INTO THE HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTY AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF CONCERN ARE THE MIXED PHASE SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. 60 FROM TORRANCE INTO LINCOLN, AND THEN
CHAVES COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE POKING JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE 0C ISOTHERM ALLOWING FOR SNOW ALOFT TO PARTIALLY MELT BEFORE
REFREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH SOME
TONIGHT BEFORE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING WHEN THE H5 LOW OPENS OVER THE SONORAN DESERT AND PHASES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO AZ. THEREAFTER, A
SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
QUICKLY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVANCES FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE RGV SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AS SUCH, ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORING STATES TO THE EAST WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" OF INCH FAVORED IN THESE AREAS STRETCHING FROM
THE MANZANOS SOUTHWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO'S AND PORTIONS OF CHAVES
AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
THE LONG DURATION BITTER COLD AND LOW VISIBILITY FROM SNOW IS THE
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COURSE. A BATCH OF SNOW
IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE STATE TONIGHT
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND ROUND OF
SNOW ARRIVES OVER EASTERN NM AS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
POLAR JET APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THANKS TO ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS VIA ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, THIS SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
EFFICIENT SNOW ACCUMULATION. EVENT TOTALS STILL FAVOR 4 TO 8
INCHES FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL NM MAINLY ALONE AND SOUTH OF I-40
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT CAA
INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S AT THEIR WARMEST SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS JUST BARELY
REACHING NEAR FREEZING AT THEIR WARMEST SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DANGEROUSLY COLD HERE FALLING BELOW ZERO WITH -10S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NM, REPEATING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPES; VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND FAVORED TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN 6,000' OVER THE NORTHWEST AT 7,500'
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL NM AND ~8,200' OVER THE GILA NF. IT'S NOT
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT THAT SNOW LEVELS HERE FALL TO
VALLEY FLOORS AS COLDER AIR FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE MIDDLE RGV.
IT'S HERE THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA HAS ITS BEST CHANCE AT
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AN EAST CANYON WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THRU
TIJERAS CANYON INTO EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL,
BUT ANY "ABQ SNOW HOLE" EFFECT LOOKS TO BE TAMED, MEANING SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD STILL BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE CITY DESPITE
THE EAST WINDS. THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES STILL FAVORED BY SUNDAY MORNING. BLACK
ICE FROM SNOW ON RAIN SOAKED ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN HERE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE METRO AREA AND ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RGV. SANTA FE MEANWHILE HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME OF THE ARCTIC
AIR REACH THERE VIA SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HAS ALREADY
TRANSITIONED TO SNOW THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, BUT NOT
NEARLY AS COLD AS OVER EASTERN NM. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 30S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO 10S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
REMNANTS OF THE BY THEN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOITER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM MONDAY. SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD THE 40F MARK WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY AND SNOWY SURFACES TO BEGIN SLOWLY MELTING A LITTLE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING OVER EAST-
CENTRAL NM DOWN INTO CHAVES COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL. THEREFORE, IT PROBABLY WON'T BE UNTIL
TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE MELTING BEGINS IN THESE AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PLATEAUING THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER WINTER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG OR AS
COLD AS THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS PUSHED IN.
SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WILL HOLD ONTO MANY AREAS THRU THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. KROW LOOKS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FAVORED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS. VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE FAVORED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO GROUND LEVEL AT KSAF
WHERE THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUSH IN VIA THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THERE. PRECIPITATION AND CLEARER CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND KFMN
SATURDAY MID-DAY, WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND CLEARER CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON EASTERN NM BUT WITH A BREAK MID-DAY IN
PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL AGAIN INTENSITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TURNS ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BITTER ARCTIC COLD HOLDS
ONTO EASTERN NM THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARN AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 18 37 13 / 70 20 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 8 33 -2 / 90 40 20 5
CUBA............................ 38 9 32 5 / 90 60 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 9 38 3 / 90 60 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 38 12 34 8 / 70 80 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 11 38 6 / 70 80 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 40 13 33 8 / 90 80 20 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 20 36 17 / 90 90 40 0
DATIL........................... 41 18 33 13 / 80 90 30 0
RESERVE......................... 48 16 45 11 / 90 90 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 52 21 49 16 / 90 90 30 0
CHAMA........................... 34 8 26 -3 / 90 50 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 16 32 10 / 90 70 30 10
PECOS........................... 27 9 27 5 / 90 80 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 12 27 4 / 80 70 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 27 5 18 0 / 80 80 40 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 1 25 -5 / 90 80 40 30
TAOS............................ 37 10 30 -1 / 90 70 30 20
MORA............................ 31 8 31 5 / 90 80 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 42 13 36 5 / 90 70 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 32 13 27 9 / 90 80 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 11 30 5 / 90 80 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 20 34 18 / 90 80 40 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 19 37 16 / 90 80 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 19 40 15 / 90 80 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 20 37 16 / 80 80 30 0
BELEN........................... 48 18 39 10 / 90 80 40 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 18 37 12 / 90 80 40 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 16 39 11 / 90 80 40 0
CORRALES........................ 43 19 38 13 / 90 80 30 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 18 39 13 / 90 90 40 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 19 34 13 / 90 80 40 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 19 37 15 / 90 80 30 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 22 41 16 / 90 90 40 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 11 29 11 / 90 90 50 5
TIJERAS......................... 36 14 31 12 / 90 90 50 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 8 30 5 / 90 90 50 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 4 30 -1 / 90 90 50 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 18 5 23 3 / 90 90 50 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 8 30 8 / 90 90 50 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 8 29 6 / 100 90 60 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 14 32 11 / 100 100 70 0
RUIDOSO......................... 37 10 30 12 / 90 100 70 0
CAPULIN......................... 14 4 25 -2 / 40 60 20 40
RATON........................... 17 5 28 -2 / 50 60 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 19 6 32 -2 / 40 60 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 5 29 2 / 80 80 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 10 5 28 1 / 60 70 10 50
ROY............................. 13 5 27 0 / 70 80 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 16 5 33 3 / 80 90 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 15 5 29 0 / 90 90 40 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 14 3 31 2 / 80 90 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 13 6 27 2 / 90 100 40 10
PORTALES........................ 14 6 27 -1 / 90 100 40 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 17 5 28 -1 / 90 100 50 10
ROSWELL......................... 23 10 27 4 / 90 90 60 0
PICACHO......................... 27 8 30 6 / 90 90 60 0
ELK............................. 32 6 32 6 / 100 90 70 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ202>204-206-
208-227-228-230-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210>218-
221>224-229-232>234-237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ207-219-225-241.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page