918
FXUS65 KABQ 092009
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
109 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- DESPITE A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AREAWIDE.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 22
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE, WITH THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NM THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA IS FINALLY INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD TODAY AND IT WILL GAIN A LITTLE SPEED AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NM TUESDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ABQ CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RUIDOSO TO
PORTALES LINE WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY ON TUESDAY MORNING, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM.
OCCASIONAL BREEZES WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NM. THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING TO BRING AN EAST (SOUTHEAST)
CANYON WIND AT ALBUQUERQUE (SANTA FE). THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
EASETRN NM WILL VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. THIS WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO TUE EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS OVER
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL WANE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NM EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STREAM PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER
NORTHWEST NM. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
SHOULD YIELD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH DUE TO WEAK FORCING DESPITE PWATS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. TEMPS WILL REBOUND IN THIS
AREA THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ALL AREAS WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS ROBUST ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE DAY WITH THE MOST IMPACTS ACROSS
THE AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES FROM YESTERDAY. 1. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW OVER NM. ONLY THE EC WAS HINTING
AT THIS YESTERDAY. 2. THE SOUTHERN AREA OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC LOOKS TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING MORE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NM. 3. DUE TO THE STRONGER SYSTEM AND
STRONGER FORCING, AND INCREASING MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE INCREASED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY
AT MINIMUM, AND THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
BE AROUND 8KFT FRIDAY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
LOWER TO 7KFT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS AND POTENTIALLY FALLING LOWER
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG MODELS AS
WELL, WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED BEING A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVING
EARLY FRIDAY. THE EC, WHICH PUSHED THE FRONT THE FURTHEST SOUTH
AND WEST YESTERDAY, HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND IS A LITTLE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS AND CMC JUST PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, BUT OVERALL THE TREND TODAY
SEEMS TO BE MORE IN OUR FAVOR FOR PRECIPITATION. HOPEFULLY THIS
TREND DOESN'T REVERSE TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NM COMING TO AN END BY MID DAY. THERE
SHOULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET AND DRY WITH A FEW BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
NM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT SHOULD
WEAKLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN JUST BEFORE
18Z TUE TO BRING AN EAST (SOUTHEAST) GAP WIND AT ABQ (SAF).
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NM THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH NOTED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE MAY INCREASE FURTHER BEFORE FALLING AROUND
SUNSET. RH VALUES HAVE ALSO ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM FOR THE DATE, TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS AREA.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY, COOLING
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY'S HIGHS. NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL BE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM. BY LATE
MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE GAP
WINDS TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH LEE
SIDE TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 63 36 60 / 0 0 20 40
DULCE........................... 22 61 29 56 / 0 0 20 50
CUBA............................ 26 60 32 58 / 0 0 5 30
GALLUP.......................... 17 63 29 59 / 0 0 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 26 60 32 58 / 0 0 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 19 63 29 62 / 0 0 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 25 62 33 61 / 0 5 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 35 61 39 61 / 0 5 10 5
DATIL........................... 29 60 34 58 / 0 5 5 5
RESERVE......................... 27 68 33 64 / 0 5 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 31 70 35 68 / 0 5 10 10
CHAMA........................... 23 54 28 48 / 0 0 10 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 56 35 55 / 0 0 5 10
PECOS........................... 30 57 29 59 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 56 32 54 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 20 47 28 45 / 0 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 10 51 18 50 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 21 58 25 56 / 0 0 5 10
MORA............................ 27 56 27 60 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 25 64 28 65 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 32 58 34 58 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 60 31 60 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 63 40 63 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 65 38 64 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 67 36 66 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 65 38 64 / 0 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 27 66 33 66 / 0 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 33 66 36 65 / 0 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 67 33 67 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 31 66 36 65 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 66 34 66 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 35 61 38 60 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 65 37 64 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 36 69 38 68 / 0 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 57 35 57 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 37 58 36 58 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 59 31 61 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 61 25 63 / 0 0 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 54 30 57 / 0 0 5 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 61 32 61 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 61 33 61 / 0 5 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 64 38 64 / 0 10 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 39 58 36 58 / 0 20 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 27 51 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 56 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 23 58 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 56 26 61 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 52 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 30 55 27 62 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 61 29 70 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 59 30 66 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 59 30 67 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 59 32 64 / 0 10 10 0
PORTALES........................ 37 61 32 66 / 0 10 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 36 62 32 65 / 0 5 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 64 38 63 / 0 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 41 65 37 68 / 0 20 10 5
ELK............................. 38 64 34 69 / 0 30 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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