112
FXUS65 KABQ 110813
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
113 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THURSDAY
AREAWIDE.
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8,000FT AND THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. UPSTREAM, A COUPLET OF
UPPER LOWS IS OFFSHORE OF CA, AND MARITIME AIR IS STREAMING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP PERIODIC MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, PWATS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL (BUT STILL
REMAIN MODEST AT LESS THAN 0.5 INCH). THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
OVERLOADING OF CLOUDS WITH HYDROMETEORS THAT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN FLURRIES TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
SQUEEZING OUT SOME WEAK OROGRAPHICS TO ASSIST PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. IN THE EAST, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND LINGER OVER EASTERN CO BEFORE SAGGING INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL INVOKE SOME BREEZINESS WITH
DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RUNNING NEARLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE COUPLET OF LOWS OFFSHORE OF CA
WILL HAVE MERGED AND PHASED INTO ONE BROADER LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE UPPER BAJA AND GULF OF CA BEFORE MOVING INTO AZ. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER TRACK NOW, KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE LOW
(OR WAVE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF) WEST OF NM, BUT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING INTO WESTERN NM
ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ON
DELAY FROM ARRIVING INTO NM, AND SNOW LEVELS WOULD REMAIN HIGH,
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7,500 TO 8,500 FT FRIDAY, AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
WOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM (0 TO -3 C). ANY IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKLEY BE CONFINED ABOVE
9,000 FT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH (6,000 TO 7,000 FT) AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW OR WAVE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THE QPF HAS BEEN REDUCED WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THIS TREND AMONG MOST MODELS (PARTICULARLY
THE WEAKER ECMWF). TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE CHANGED MUCH WITH THE LOW/WAVE, BUT THIS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.3" THAT WAS ADVERTISED OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS' RUNS. ALSO, NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
TREND DOWN A COUPLE INCHES (2 TO 6 INCHES) BASED ON LATEST RUNS.
REGARDLESS, THIS IS A NOTEABLE PATTERN SHIFT WITH THE BEST
PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM HAS SEEN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, BUT IT JUST IS NOT LOOKING AS BENEFICIAL
OR IMPACTFUL.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW/WAVE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS ON EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE DROPPED CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY OVER NM ON MONDAY AS
A DEEP LOW ENCROACHES UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT ENTHUSED ABOUT MUCH
PRECIPITATION ENTERING NM, BUT THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
WILL LEAD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING INTO AZ AND WESTERN NM WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP NOT OUT OF THE REALMS OF POSSIBILITIES. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL REST IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT REGIME, AS THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LEAD TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS WILL CAUSE FIRE DANGER TO
ESCALATE AMID THE BREEZY TO WINDY, WARM, DRY AND SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS. THE FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY VEER A BIT MORE WESTERLY
WHILE REMAINING STRONG INTO TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. A SIMILAR REGIME WOULD STILL
SEEM TO HOLD ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PERSISTING IN
WESTERN ZONES (AND POSSIBLY INCREASING) WHILE DRY, WARM, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LINGER IN THE EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
GRADUALLY LOWERING, BUT STILL VFR, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY WITH
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE PROB30 IN THIS REGARD FOR KFMN, BUT EXPAND IN
DURATION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WOULD REMAIN IN AZ/CO...ALSO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDER CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10% (PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 5%). MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL THROUGH
MOUNTAIN GAPS AND INTO KSAF TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING WED AFTERNOON FOR KTCC AND
KROW AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH HUMIDITY RISING AS
MARITIME PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OUR WAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL
STAY AT OR ABOVE 25 TO 35%, AND A FEW LIGHT, INCONSEQUENTIAL
SHOWERS WILL BE OBSERVED IN NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY INTO THURSDAY WITH
HUMIDITY FALLING SLIGHTLY TO A 15 TO 25% MINIMUM RANGE. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND IN EASTERN NM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
FOR MID FEBRUARY. HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A PAIR OF UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOWS MERGE AND MOVE
TOWARD NM. THE PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GREATER THAN
0.1" HAVE LOWERED SOME ACCORDING TO LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS, BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RECEIVE WETTING
RAIN WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING A COUPLE TO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZES VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN NM) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN
STATES WILL DRAG STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NM MONDAY. WHILE
THIS MAY STEER HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NM,
IT WILL HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON EASTERN ZONES WITH STRONG
DOWNSLOPING, DRYING, AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A
THREAT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AS WELL, DEPENDING ON THE FATE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 35 60 35 / 40 40 5 20
DULCE........................... 56 30 58 26 / 60 70 30 20
CUBA............................ 57 33 58 32 / 30 40 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 58 26 60 26 / 20 10 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 58 32 58 33 / 20 10 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 62 27 62 27 / 20 10 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 61 33 60 34 / 5 5 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 62 39 62 41 / 5 5 5 10
DATIL........................... 60 34 59 35 / 5 5 5 10
RESERVE......................... 65 31 65 33 / 5 5 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 70 35 70 36 / 10 5 0 20
CHAMA........................... 49 29 51 25 / 50 60 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 37 57 38 / 10 30 10 20
PECOS........................... 58 34 59 34 / 0 10 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 34 54 32 / 10 20 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 44 30 46 27 / 10 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 24 51 20 / 5 20 20 20
TAOS............................ 57 31 58 27 / 10 20 10 20
MORA............................ 59 32 59 30 / 0 10 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 64 33 66 32 / 5 30 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 38 60 38 / 5 20 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 35 62 36 / 0 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 44 65 45 / 5 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 41 67 43 / 5 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 40 69 40 / 5 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 41 67 42 / 5 10 5 20
BELEN........................... 67 37 69 39 / 5 10 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 66 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 37 69 38 / 5 10 5 20
CORRALES........................ 66 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 39 69 40 / 5 10 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 62 42 62 42 / 5 10 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 70 41 71 43 / 0 5 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 39 59 40 / 5 10 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 59 39 60 40 / 5 10 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 36 62 38 / 0 10 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 31 64 33 / 0 10 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 34 59 35 / 0 5 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 37 63 39 / 0 5 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 37 64 40 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 42 66 43 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 41 62 42 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 59 32 61 29 / 0 0 5 10
RATON........................... 61 29 63 29 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 64 29 66 29 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 33 63 33 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 61 42 69 36 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 60 34 67 35 / 0 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 67 37 75 38 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 37 70 39 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 39 75 38 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 64 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 65 38 75 42 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 62 39 73 43 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 65 39 72 43 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 69 37 72 40 / 0 0 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...53
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