113
FXUS65 KABQ 122027
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
127 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8,500FT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
A PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, WILL
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER
NM EXTENDING SOUTHWEST BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL TREND UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
BRINGING THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OFF HIGH, AROUND 8500-9500FT ON FRIDAY AND THEN LOWER
TO AROUND 7,500FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
EJECTS EAST INTO TX. WE'RE STILL FORECASTING ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWFALL IN THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH THIS
EVENT, MAINLY ABOVE 8500FT, SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHORTLY. OTHERWISE, THIS EVENT WILL BRING SOLID SOAKING
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELING OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOWS IT FILLING AND BRIEFLY OPENING-UP AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. MEANING, THE FORCING IS TRENDING WEAKER AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND-DOWN OVER NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY MORNING
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH, WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMING
THAT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY. A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF NM, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
THE FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON AN IMPRESSIVE/DEEP TROUGHING
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE ASSOCIATED POLAR JET STREAM,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO TURN INLAND OVER SOCAL ON MONDAY AND THEN
PLAGUE NM FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE POLAR JET WILL ALSO STEER PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
GROWING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NM AT A MINIMUM. MODEL SPREAD AMONG THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS IS LEADING TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER DAY, SO AT
THIS TIME IT'S BEST TO PLAN ON BOTH DAYS BEING WINDY AND
POTENTIALLY REQUIRING MORE WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT KGUP FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR
CIGS IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. A MOIST PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. DRYING/WARMING
IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA AND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NM MONDAY THANKS TO LEE
SIDE TROUGHING, BUT THE JET STREAM WILL SUPPLY MUCH STRONGER WINDS
TUESDAY WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE JET STREAM WILL ALSO BRING PACIFIC
MOISTURE, SO HUMIDITY MAY BE A LIMITER FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION ON WED/THU, WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL GRACE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
NM FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 53 34 57 / 10 70 50 0
DULCE........................... 27 53 27 55 / 5 80 70 20
CUBA............................ 32 53 30 50 / 5 80 80 20
GALLUP.......................... 26 49 24 55 / 5 80 70 5
EL MORRO........................ 33 49 30 51 / 5 80 80 10
GRANTS.......................... 29 53 27 55 / 5 80 80 5
QUEMADO......................... 34 52 32 50 / 0 80 70 10
MAGDALENA....................... 41 56 35 56 / 5 70 80 10
DATIL........................... 35 51 32 50 / 0 80 70 5
RESERVE......................... 33 55 29 58 / 5 80 70 10
GLENWOOD........................ 37 60 30 65 / 5 80 70 5
CHAMA........................... 27 47 24 50 / 5 80 80 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 51 34 52 / 5 70 80 20
PECOS........................... 33 55 31 54 / 0 70 90 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 51 32 48 / 0 60 80 30
RED RIVER....................... 27 42 27 40 / 0 70 80 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 49 21 47 / 5 60 80 40
TAOS............................ 30 54 30 53 / 0 60 80 20
MORA............................ 31 54 29 53 / 0 50 80 30
ESPANOLA........................ 32 59 34 60 / 0 60 80 20
SANTA FE........................ 38 55 35 54 / 5 70 90 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 56 34 56 / 5 70 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 59 40 58 / 5 70 80 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 60 39 60 / 5 70 80 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 62 37 63 / 5 70 80 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 60 39 60 / 5 70 80 10
BELEN........................... 37 62 36 63 / 5 70 80 10
BERNALILLO...................... 40 61 39 62 / 5 70 80 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 62 35 63 / 5 70 80 10
CORRALES........................ 39 61 38 62 / 5 70 80 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 62 36 63 / 5 70 80 10
PLACITAS........................ 41 57 39 57 / 5 70 80 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 60 39 61 / 5 70 80 10
SOCORRO......................... 43 64 39 65 / 0 50 80 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 55 35 53 / 5 70 90 10
TIJERAS......................... 41 56 36 54 / 5 70 90 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 57 34 56 / 0 60 90 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 59 31 58 / 0 50 90 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 55 32 53 / 0 50 80 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 59 34 56 / 0 60 90 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 38 59 35 57 / 0 50 80 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 62 37 58 / 0 50 70 10
RUIDOSO......................... 41 56 35 51 / 0 50 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 31 56 29 47 / 0 20 80 50
RATON........................... 29 58 31 51 / 0 30 80 40
SPRINGER........................ 29 59 32 55 / 0 30 80 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 57 31 55 / 0 40 80 20
CLAYTON......................... 36 59 38 53 / 0 10 80 50
ROY............................. 34 58 36 55 / 0 10 80 20
CONCHAS......................... 36 65 37 63 / 0 20 80 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 63 37 60 / 0 30 70 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 66 37 62 / 0 20 70 20
CLOVIS.......................... 44 68 40 60 / 0 30 50 20
PORTALES........................ 40 70 40 61 / 0 30 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 66 38 61 / 0 30 50 10
ROSWELL......................... 44 67 42 65 / 0 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 43 65 38 63 / 0 20 30 10
ELK............................. 40 64 34 61 / 0 30 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR NMZ210-213-214.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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