093
FXUS65 KABQ 130810
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
110 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8,500FT WITH
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THRU
SATURDAY MORNING. A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TODAY WILL SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
REGION THRU MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF SEVERAL WEAKER
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE THE DETAILS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF QPF VERY TRICKY. THE LATEST PROBS FOR >0.25" OF LIQUID
ARE STILL FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE AND THE NORTHERN MTS
WHILE A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT FOCUSES FROM SOCORRO COUNTY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM FOR MID FEBRUARY SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8,500 FT THRU
THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR 7,000 FT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AND OVERALL IMPACTS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR.
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION (EXCEPT PERHAPS ROSWELL).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MONDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
EVEN WARMER TEMPS (10-20F ABOVE NORMAL). WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KT
WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. EVEN STRONGER
WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH AND
PERHAPS LOCALIZED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 7,000 FT.
STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL RACE
THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIND AND ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTH AND WEST. WEST
WINDS OVER EASTERN NM MAY EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS
WITH EACH OF THE UPPER WAVES WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND
POSSIBLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NM,
INCLUDING KGUP, AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NM DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH LIKELY MOUNTAIN
OBSERVATIONS DUE TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KROW LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO MID FRIDAY EVENING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BECOMES MORE SCATTERED ACROSS WESTERN NM AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MVFR CEILINGS. KTCC IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
A MOIST STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU NM TODAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING WETTING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM. A DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE LOWER RGV
INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. SUNDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN IS STILL IN STORE FOR EASTERN NM NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG WINDS TREND BUT HUMIDITY IS ALREADY
MORE LIKELY TO BE SUBCRITICAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS OVER EASTERN NM. RFTI GRID VALUES SHOW WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER EASTERN NM. THE WINDY AND DRY PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN NM. MEANWHILE, WESTERN NM MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC
BURSTS OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 34 56 29 / 80 70 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 28 54 20 / 90 90 20 0
CUBA............................ 53 30 51 24 / 90 100 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 49 23 56 17 / 90 80 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 31 52 25 / 90 90 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 27 55 16 / 90 80 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 32 51 24 / 80 70 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 35 56 32 / 70 70 5 0
DATIL........................... 53 33 51 26 / 70 50 0 0
RESERVE......................... 57 28 60 23 / 90 60 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 62 30 65 27 / 80 70 5 0
CHAMA........................... 49 26 49 20 / 90 90 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 34 52 32 / 80 90 10 0
PECOS........................... 56 30 54 27 / 80 90 30 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 32 49 27 / 70 90 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 27 40 22 / 70 90 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 21 46 13 / 70 90 40 0
TAOS............................ 55 30 53 18 / 70 90 20 0
MORA............................ 53 28 53 24 / 70 90 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 60 33 59 26 / 70 90 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 35 54 32 / 80 90 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 34 56 29 / 70 90 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 41 58 36 / 70 90 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 38 60 34 / 70 90 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 36 63 31 / 70 90 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 38 61 33 / 70 90 5 0
BELEN........................... 64 35 63 27 / 60 80 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 64 38 62 33 / 70 90 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 33 63 27 / 60 90 10 0
CORRALES........................ 64 38 62 32 / 70 90 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 35 63 29 / 60 90 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 38 57 35 / 70 90 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 38 61 32 / 70 90 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 38 66 32 / 50 70 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 35 53 31 / 70 90 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 36 54 32 / 70 90 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 35 56 28 / 70 90 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 31 58 22 / 60 90 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 32 52 28 / 60 80 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 34 56 29 / 60 80 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 34 57 29 / 50 70 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 38 59 33 / 50 60 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 35 52 32 / 50 50 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 58 30 48 24 / 20 70 30 0
RATON........................... 59 31 52 22 / 30 80 30 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 30 56 22 / 30 80 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 30 55 26 / 50 80 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 38 54 30 / 10 70 40 0
ROY............................. 61 34 56 27 / 20 70 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 35 63 29 / 30 60 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 38 60 30 / 40 60 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 37 62 30 / 30 50 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 40 60 34 / 50 50 30 0
PORTALES........................ 71 40 62 32 / 60 50 30 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 36 62 30 / 50 50 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 41 66 35 / 40 40 10 0
PICACHO......................... 67 37 63 33 / 40 20 5 0
ELK............................. 65 33 62 29 / 40 30 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR NMZ210-213-214.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71
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