194
FXUS65 KABQ 021111 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
411 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 405 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
- A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND TUESDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL NM WILL BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE MORNING AND A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED. MEANWHILE, WEST
OF THE BOUNDARY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF A TROUGH/WEAKLY CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE
GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH,
PARTICULARLY NEAR GALLUP AND LAS VEGAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE, AND A FEW RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER IN ABQ SO CHANCES ARE LOWERING THAT THE SUNPORT WILL
REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY, BUT CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THAT ABQ WILL
BREAK A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS UT AND CO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT WILL CROSS NM ON TUESDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. STRONG DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM OVER TODAY'S READINGS BY A FEW
DEGREES, AND A RECORD OR TWO WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. AT H7, WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 75TH
PERCENTILE MIXING HEIGHTS AND A MODEST SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL
ALLOW WEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AREAWIDE, THOUGH MOST NOTABLY
SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD STAY SUB-ADVISORY, BUT KCQC WILL
GET CLOSE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TUESDAY EVENING, THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN
NM TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT, SO ALL AREAS (SANS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE (30-40KT AT H7, UP TO 50KT AT H5)
AND MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD APPROACH 550 MB. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL DEEPEN TO 994-995MB. THUS,
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE, THOUGH
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO STILL INVOLVES A SHORTWAVE CROSSING CO ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM, FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN BAJA. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE LOW RETROGRADES AND THEN, HOW FAST IT EJECTS OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT STILL ON TAP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL
(10-30%) FRI THROUGH SUN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. THESE LOW CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NO TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED, THOUGH KCVS, KCVN AND KTCC WILL BE
IMPACTED. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OR SO WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM. SURFACE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, THEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 FROM
RIBERA TO RATON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH SUB-15% RH IS FORECAST.
ON TUESDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
LARGER AREA OF EASTERN NM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SUB-15% RH IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER WITH NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, DESPITE PERIODIC FRONTAL INTRUSIONS,
BUT COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 73 38 63 32 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 67 30 60 23 / 0 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 70 37 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 72 30 64 22 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 71 36 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 75 32 67 24 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 75 37 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 78 44 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 73 38 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 35 71 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 39 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 30 54 24 / 0 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 43 62 34 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 67 40 64 31 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 38 58 30 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 54 34 48 25 / 0 0 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 30 54 19 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 69 34 62 25 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 69 40 63 29 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 75 40 69 29 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 71 43 64 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 41 67 33 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 49 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 46 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 43 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 45 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 83 40 76 34 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 79 45 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 40 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 79 45 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 42 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 76 48 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 45 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 85 45 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 45 64 37 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 72 45 67 37 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 43 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 38 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 40 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 43 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 43 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 48 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 71 48 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 38 65 27 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 74 35 68 27 / 0 0 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 78 35 71 28 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 40 67 29 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 73 44 73 34 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 74 40 72 32 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 79 43 80 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 43 77 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 44 81 35 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 73 45 82 39 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 74 45 83 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 41 82 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 45 86 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 47 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 80 47 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ123.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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