878
FXUS65 KABQ 050518 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1018 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY
WITH BROADER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BREEZY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS (WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT) DOESN'T CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, 700 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE
TO AROUND 35 KTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THIS STRONGER
MOMENTUM LIKELY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY. BUMPED
UP WINDS WINDS AREAWIDE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A 992 - 996 MB LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD AID IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS PART OF THE STATE
HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES FOR A HIGH
RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PACIFIC FRONT AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT, 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 55 TO 65 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN RANGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN THE THREAT WIND ADVISORY OR EVEN HIGH WIND
CONDITIONS EXISTING ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY MORNING ON
FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT DIMINISHES TO AROUND 40 KTS AT 700 MB BY NOON,
DECREASING WINDS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ANOTHER SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS
TIME FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THURSDAY, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DUE TO STRONGER GUSTS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW (UNDER
AN INCH) ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INDUCE A GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY MAY CREATE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND ACROSS PARTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO.
AS A RESULT OF THESE FRONTS, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR AND EVEN
BELOW AVERAGE CROSS THE STATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S ON SATURDAY. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE.
A CUT OFF LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG MODELS
ABOUT WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT EAST AND WHERE IT WILL
TRACK THROUGH. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, SO SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE IN THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH PERIODS
OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE PROBABILITIES
EXIST FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE TX BORDER IN
EAST CENTRAL NM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
EAST OF KROW. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WHERE GUSTS TO BETWEEN
30-35KTS ARE LIKELY. PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
KABQ AND KROW THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW VFR AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
WHILE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE
HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
ON THURSDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 10% WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD FOR THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE, BUT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS. HE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY, CREATING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHEAST AND COOLING TEMPERATURE AREAWIDE. WITH LESSER WIND SPEEDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, FIRE CONCERNS DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 63 31 49 / 0 5 30 20
DULCE........................... 23 60 25 44 / 0 5 40 50
CUBA............................ 30 61 26 44 / 0 0 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 24 62 21 47 / 0 0 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 29 61 25 45 / 0 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 24 66 22 49 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 29 64 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 66 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 31 62 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 27 65 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 70 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 25 53 22 38 / 0 0 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 60 32 46 / 0 0 10 10
PECOS........................... 31 61 30 47 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 57 29 42 / 0 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 28 48 25 33 / 0 0 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 54 19 39 / 0 0 5 20
TAOS............................ 25 62 24 46 / 0 0 5 20
MORA............................ 30 61 28 46 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 29 67 29 53 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 36 62 34 48 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 65 32 51 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 68 40 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 70 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 72 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 38 70 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 32 73 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 38 70 37 56 / 0 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 32 73 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 37 70 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 33 72 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 40 66 38 53 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 38 69 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 38 75 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 62 35 48 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 64 36 51 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 66 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 68 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 65 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 66 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 66 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 70 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 65 40 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 30 65 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 26 70 26 52 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 25 71 27 55 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 66 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 73 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 34 71 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 37 79 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 76 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 80 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 45 79 42 66 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 45 80 42 68 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 80 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 84 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 77 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 39 74 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
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