629
FXUS65 KABQ 191804 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
- WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND POSING
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT. HEAT RISK
PEAKS SATURDAY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN EASTERN NM SUNDAY, LOWERING
HIGH TEMPERATURES. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS LIKELY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE MARCH HEAT IS ON! LATEST GOES MID-LEVEL WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SPRAWLING MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR KBLH (BLYTHE, AZ) WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. 00Z/KABQ RAOB RECORDED 0.21" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, WITH
500MB HEIGHT CHECKING IN AT 591.0 DAM. IT SEEMS THAT 90F READINGS
AT KABQ MAY BE SAFELY AVOIDED TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH NBM 5.0
PROBABILITIES OF HITTING THAT MARK RUNNING 10-15%. VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE CITY HAVE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE BOTH DAYS,
HOWEVER. PREVIOUS DAILY RECORDS OF 85 AND 82F, RESPECTIVELY, ARE
LIKELY TO BE BROKEN, THOUGH, EVEN IF NBM BIAS-CORRECTION IS
"OVER-COOKED" BY A DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS OF 15-25F ABOVE
AVERAGE WILL SET DAILY RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL NOT
BE ENUMERATED HERE, BUT SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. CENTROID OF MID/UPPER HIGH NUDGES CLOSER BY FRIDAY,
CENTERED NEAR KTUS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE HISTORICAL EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE APPEARS TO PEAK ON SATURDAY,
AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO JET
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS ALLOWS A MODEST LOW-
LEVEL LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NM,
ADDING AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO THE ALREADY
HOT TEMPERATURES. NBM 5.0 EVEN HAS A ~20% CHANCE OF REACHING 100F
AT TUCUMCARI AND ROSWELL, THOUGH MID- TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S SEEM
MORE REASONABLE. HEAT RISK REACHES LOCALLY MODERATE LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN NORTHEASTERN NM,
WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING. CONCEPTUAL MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT'S PROGRESS AGAINST A VERY HOT (THOUGH
FLATTENING) RIDGE ALOFT WOULD BE SLOW DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
AND THIS IS REFLECTED PRETTY WELL IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. SO IT
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY, EXCEPT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-40...THOUGH TEMPS IN THESE
AREAS WILL STILL PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRONT SHOULD
GET A BETTER PUSH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MEX
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN EAST-CANYON WIND OF UP TO 25-30 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT AT ABQ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE INTO THE 20S/LOW
30S F, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, BEHIND THE FRONT, AS IT PUSHES TOWARD
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY, WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LOWLAND TEMPS STILL
REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING ALOFT TO BEGIN BUILDING IN AGAIN BY
TUESDAY, THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CENTROID VARY A BIT.
GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH, WHICH HELPS TO TANK DEWPOINTS
AGAIN AND LEAD TO SOME RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE BELOW).
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S REAPPEAR IN THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
NEXT TUE AND WED, THOUGH THIS RIDGE SEEMS TO REMAIN A BIT WEAKER
AND FLATTER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED FOR LATER WED OR NEXT THU, THOUGH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS
ONLY MODEST COOLING FOR THU AT THIS POINT. HYBRID AI/GEFS ENSEMBLE
HINTS AT RIDGING AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK, IN ADVANCE OF BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. RECORD HEAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER DENSITY
ALTITUDE READINGS THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
RECORD HEAT AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL LEAD TO RHS
TANKING TO 5-10% EACH AFTERNOON OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FIRE
WEATHER AREA DAILY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HEAT PEAKS ON SATURDAY,
SINGLE-DIGIT RHS PERSIST FOR 8-12 HOURS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER MOUNTAIN
AREAS. DEEP MIXING COUPLED WITH A MODEST LEE-SIDE TROUGH PROPEL
20-FT. WINDS TO 10-15 MPH EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS). SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A BROAD AREA
OF 40% PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, AS
RFTI VALUES REACH 4. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN NM TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGS SOME HIGHER-DEWPOINT AIR FOR MONDAY,
EASING RH PRESSURES IN EASTERN NM, BUT THIS FRONT ALSO LIKELY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO BRING DRIER AIR BACK IN FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUE, AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AGAIN ALSO. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT THU, UNTIL
ANOTHER BACK-DOOR FRONT ARRIVES.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING OF BOTH FINE AND TIMBER
FUELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ANY
FIRES THAT DO START COULD BURN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
FEMS FUEL MODEL Y ERCS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 90% OR HIGHER PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
YESTERDAY (WED, 18 MAR), ABQ INTERNATIONAL SUNPORT TIED THE ALL-
TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85F. THIS MARCH RECORD IS
LIKELY TO BE ECLIPSED EACH DAY FROM TODAY (THURSDAY) THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 88, 89, AND 91F,
RESPECTIVELY. THE EARLIEST 90F ON RECORD FOR ABQ IS 03 MAY, WHICH
OCCURRED IN BOTH 1943 AND 1947, SO THIS RECORD IS CERTAINLY IN
JEOPARDY.
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT ROSWELL FOR TODAY IS 93F, SET IN 1907,
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F. ROSWELL'S ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
MARCH IS 95F, WHICH COULD BE BROKEN ON SATURDAY WHEN THE FORECAST
HIGH IS 96F.
FOR CLAYTON, A WOULD-BE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 86F IS FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 84F FOR 20 MAR, DATING
TO 1916. THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH IS 87F, LAST SET
IN 2017, WHICH COULD BE THREATENED ON FRIDAY AND IS LIKELY TO BE
BROKEN ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE FORECAST HIGH IS 92F.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 39 84 39 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 80 32 83 31 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 81 38 82 39 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 84 28 84 30 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 82 35 82 38 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 85 33 85 33 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 83 39 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 81 43 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 89 37 89 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 40 94 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 75 33 77 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 49 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 81 42 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 67 35 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 18 76 19 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 81 31 83 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 81 42 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 86 42 88 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 81 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 42 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 54 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 51 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 47 91 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 49 89 49 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 42 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 89 48 89 48 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 41 90 41 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 90 47 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 40 89 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 84 51 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 50 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 52 92 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 49 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 82 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 83 46 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 34 87 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 43 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 83 47 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 52 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 80 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 78 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 81 35 83 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 83 36 84 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 42 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 84 47 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 83 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 90 42 92 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 45 88 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 90 42 90 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 49 92 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 92 46 94 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 44 93 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 92 46 92 47 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 89 50 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 88 50 89 49 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...16
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