287
FXUS65 KABQ 200817
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- AN UNPRECEDENTED HEATWAVE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE
MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT. ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
- EAST WIND GUSTS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE CROSSWINDS UP TO 40 MPH ON NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE, INCLUDING I-25.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UNPRECEDENTED HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB AROUND 21-31 DEGREES
ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES. NOT ONLY WILL MANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BE SMASHED BY SIZABLE MARGINS TODAY AND
SATURDAY, ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MARCH AND APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. ALBUQUERQUE SHOULD REACH 90 F ON SATURDAY, BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST 90 F DAY SET ON MAY 3, 1943 AND 1947.
CLAYTON'S HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO ECLIPSE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD EARLIEST 90(+) F DAY SET ON APRIL 20, 1989. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE STORY IN MANY LOCATIONS. FORTUNATELY, A
POWERFUL, SUMMER-LIKE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AZ WITH A 500 MB HEIGHT PEAKING AROUND 595 DAM AS OF THIS WRITING
SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 588 MB AS THE CENTROID SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER SOUTHWEST NM ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON
SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES STRENGTHENS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NM AND
INDUCES A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO PEAK FROM 25-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, HUMIDITIES
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF NM ON SATURDAY, A
GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT ELSEWHERE ENABLING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL ON SUNDAY
A FEW TO AROUND 13 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. NONETHELESS,
SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY AROUND 17 TO 23 DEGREES ABOVE
30-YEAR AVERAGES. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO RETURN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY PEAK
FROM 30-40 MPH. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND
BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH AROUND 40 MPH BELOW TIJERAS CANYON IN
ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY ALSO AROUND THE SANTA FE
AIRPORT.
THE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AND DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AND
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING
AROUND 19-27 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, AS READINGS
CLIMB BETWEEN 20-27 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES. DENSITY
ALTITUDE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION
OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. AFTER WIDESPREAD POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND PERSISTENT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT,
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD MOSTLY VARY FROM 40-70 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN, HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST MONDAY, WHILE
WESTERN READINGS CONTINUE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 86 41 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 83 33 82 36 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 82 41 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 28 89 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 40 85 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 86 33 88 35 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 41 86 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 83 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 82 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 89 41 88 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 92 45 92 43 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 77 37 78 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 83 45 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 45 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 69 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 25 76 29 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 83 32 85 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 80 44 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 88 42 90 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 84 47 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 43 87 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 50 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 48 92 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 50 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 90 42 92 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 89 48 91 50 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 43 91 43 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 90 49 92 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 45 91 45 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 85 50 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 49 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 91 50 94 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 83 51 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 43 86 46 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 33 89 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 45 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 45 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 47 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 80 43 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 84 38 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 86 37 91 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 43 86 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 86 50 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 85 43 91 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 92 44 98 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 44 95 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 45 97 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 93 50 96 52 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 48 96 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 43 97 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 95 47 97 49 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 90 51 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 88 49 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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