313
FXUS65 KABQ 221825
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1225 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ALONG NORTH-TO-SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE TO
ALBUQUERQUE, INCLUDING I-25 ARRIVES TONIGHT FROM EAST WIND GUSTS
BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO
HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH HEAT
RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ADVANCING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM THIS MORNING
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CO.
THE ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE JETSTREAM HAS PUSHED OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER WY/CO/NE AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO CONTINUE ADVANCING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WEST THRU EASTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
15F TO 20F COOLER FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS, MAINLY FROM CLAYTON TO
TUCUMCARI. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN, THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN 9F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN 15F TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 80S AND 90S, A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS
THANKS TO THE FLATTENING AND WEAKENING OF THE ABNORMALLY STRONG H5
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING AROUND 7PM TO 10PM FROM SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE AND THRU
CARRIZOZO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EAST CANYON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY THRU PLACES LIKE THE TIJERAS AND BEAR CANYONS INTO
EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE LASTING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF MONDAY. STRONG CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH HIGHWAYS LIKE I-25
AND TRAMWAY BLVD. WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DURING
THIS TIME.
THE COOLER AND RELATIVELY MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TO AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
CONSIDERABLY OVER EASTERN NM INTO THE 70S WITH 80S HOLDING ONTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES BY 5F TO 25F, THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SPEAKS VOLUMES TO HOW ABNORMALLY HOT IT HAS BEEN
THIS PAST WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHAT LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS. BOTTOM-LINE, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AFTER SEEING THE HISTORICALLY STRONG AND HOT H5 DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE GET WRECKED AND FLATTENED TODAY AND MONDAY, IT WILL ARISE
FROM THE ASHES AGAIN TUESDAY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING IT REACHING THE 595-
597DM STRENGTH AGAIN, IT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH MEXICO TO ~591 ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S AND 90S. MORE DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. THURSDAY SEES THE HIGH
BECOME FLATTENED A LITTLE AS A WEAK H5 LOW OPENS AND CROSSES
NORTHERN AZ AND NM. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH A
SYNOPTICALLY LARGER TROUGHING PATTERN WITHIN THE JETSTREAM
STRETCHING FROM THE HUDSON'S BAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWEST. A
RESULTING POTENT COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THIS LARGER FEATURE'S
WAKE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS COLD
FRONT HAS STRONGER POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU
MORE OF NM BENEATH THE H5 HIGH. THE RESULT, A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS AND UNFORTUNATELY A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A POTENT COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THRU
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS HOUR, BRINGING A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO KCAO AND KTCC. GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25
TO 35 KTS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AND WESTWARD THRU THE
AFTERNOON, REACHING KROW TO KABQ AND KSAF B/W 01Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING. EAST CANYON WINDS PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AT KABQ AND KSAF ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 TO 38KTS,
AND AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AT KABQ LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WIND BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR. MEANWHILE, A POTENT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THRU EASTERN NM TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ALONGSIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. A BRIEF 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
IMMEDIATELY FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE AND BEFORE
HUMIDITY INCREASES ENOUGH. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND BEYOND INTO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU BY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL REACH SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A
RESULT.
MONDAY SEES LIGHTER WINDS, RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY BRING A BRIEF RESPITE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE HEAT
AND DRYNESS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON YIELDING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WESTERLIES
INCREASE THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MOISTURE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE BRINGING AN END OF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF SPORADIC VIRGA SHOWERS
AND DRY LIGHTNING NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 78 35 81 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 75 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 80 36 83 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 76 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 81 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 79 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 41 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 40 83 37 87 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 87 42 91 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 73 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 72 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 71 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 62 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 68 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 33 75 35 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 33 73 43 80 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 43 80 43 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 73 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 75 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 79 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 84 48 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 41 83 43 90 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 81 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 83 44 91 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 46 83 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 83 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 77 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 85 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 74 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 77 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 79 41 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 72 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 77 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 79 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 39 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 30 65 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 70 37 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 32 73 37 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 70 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 67 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 34 67 41 85 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 38 76 43 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 73 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 75 45 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 73 48 92 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 40 75 46 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 75 43 94 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 46 75 47 95 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 41 77 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 80 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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