453
FXUS65 KABQ 231149 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- WEST AND NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WILL PROBABLY REACH UP TO 45 MPH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO,
SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
- A BLUSTERY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT AND
STRONG NORTHEAST CROSSWINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FROM THE EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED, GUSTY, AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSE A RISK OF BLOWING
DUST AND NEW FIRE STARTS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY MOST PLACES AND HUMIDITIES HIGHER.
NONETHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL RISE FROM
NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO AS MUCH AS
20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL RETURN AREAWIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES PLUMMET. THE 500 MB PRESSURE
HEIGHT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 591 DAM OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 22-29 DEGREES ABOVE
30-YEAR AVERAGES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALMOST AREAWIDE, AND AS
WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE CO/NM BORDER. FURTHER, A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF A ~997 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTHEAST
NM/SOUTHEAST CO BORDER WILL HELP TO PRODUCE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO,
SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE THE
GREATEST RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A ROUGHLY 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 50 MPH
ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND FROM
40-50 MPH BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS MUCH AS 35 DEGREES BELOW THURSDAY'S
READINGS, AND A FEW TO 15 DEGREES FARTHER WEST. THE COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES BELOW
30-YEAR AVERAGES ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES
ABOVE THE AVERAGES FROM CHAMA TO GALLUP.
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER WESTERN
NM SATURDAY, AS WELL AS SUNDAY, AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALOFT RETREATS OVER THE GULF COAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE SOUTHWEST US COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AND ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROBABLY BE RICH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED,
GUSTY, DUSTY, AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE SOME ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ON THE
SOUTHWEST US COAST EJECTS INLAND, BUT THERE SHOULD STILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE SOME
COOLING WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OVERNIGHT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL CLIMB AROUND 19 DEGREES
ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WHERE DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE AN ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST ALMOST AREAWIDE ON TODAY, BUT
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL STILL FALL NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HUMIDITIES WILL THEN TREND
DOWNWARD AGAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST ON THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
MOISTURE WITH THURSDAY NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
HUMIDITIES TO CLIMB BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY, THEN OVER 15 PERCENT AS FAR WEST
AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ISOLATED, GUSTY AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WESTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST US COAST EJECTS INLAND, BUT WITH
HUMIDITIES ONLY VARYING FROM 17 TO 27 PERCENT, WETTING FOOTPRINTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE SMALL SIDE WITH SOME DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE MIX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 81 43 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 75 34 80 37 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 74 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 81 36 83 36 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 76 41 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 80 36 84 37 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 79 41 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 77 48 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 77 43 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 81 36 86 41 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 42 89 45 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 69 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 71 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 23 73 32 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 73 35 81 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 70 43 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 78 42 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 72 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 42 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 52 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 50 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 81 44 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 79 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 81 44 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 80 50 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 45 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 76 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 83 49 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 74 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 45 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 37 86 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 44 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 46 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 49 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 64 38 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 37 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 36 85 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 65 44 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 65 42 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 73 42 92 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 44 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 45 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 47 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 44 93 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 42 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 46 96 53 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 72 50 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 73 49 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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