380
FXUS65 KABQ 240826
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
226 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
- A BLUSTERY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT AND
STRONG NORTHEAST CROSSWINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FROM THE EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ISOLATED AND GUSTY DRY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, NEW FIRE STARTS, AND
BLOWING DUST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD TO MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL RETURN AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES PLUMMET. THE 500 MB PRESSURE
HEIGHT IS STILL FORECAST TO PEAK PEAK AROUND 591 DAM OVER THE NM
BOOTHEEL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 21-28 DEGREES
ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES. IF THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT REACHES THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BEAT
THE WARMEST MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES THAT THE
SUNPORT SET JUST THIS PAST SUNDAY. MULTIPLE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO REACH THEIR RECORD WARMEST MARCH READINGS WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALMOST AREAWIDE, AND AS
WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE CO/NM BORDER. FURTHER, A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF A ~994 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTHEAST
NM/SOUTHEAST CO BORDER WILL HELP TO PRODUCE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE
THE GREATEST RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIVEN BY A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH ON THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST US COAST. THERE IS AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 50 MPH ON THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND FROM 40-50 MPH
BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM SANTA FE
SOUTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
FEW MODELS FORECAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR BELOW
TIJERAS CANYON IN ALBUQUERQUE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT POSSIBILITY AT THIS
TIME. COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING AROUND 25 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY BELOW THURSDAY'S READINGS, AND A FEW TO 20 DEGREES FARTHER
WEST. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SATURDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM 4 DEGREES
BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FROM CHAMA TO GALLUP.
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALOFT RETREATS OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST US COAST GRADUALLY EXITS INLAND
OVER THE STATE. DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE INCREASED GULF MOISTURE
BEHIND FRIDAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT, ISOLATED, GUSTY, AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WILL SPREAD
MAINLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL.
FARTHER WEST, MODELS SUGGEST PWATS MAY ONLY CLIMB UP TO 0.80"
LOCALLY SUNDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD SUNDAY, SUPPORTING A MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WETTING
PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO CLIMB AROUND 6 TO 16
DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
AREAS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE 80S TO THE MID 90S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE SET THIS
AFTERNOON, AND DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TODAY,
THEN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALMOST AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
WE ARE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THESE
ZONES WILL PROBABLY WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IF WINDS
STRENGTHEN IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. MOISTURE WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO CLIMB BETWEEN
20-29 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
FRIDAY, THEN OVER 15 PERCENT ALMOST AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED,
GUSTY AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST US COAST EJECTS
INLAND, BUT PWATS ONLY CLIMBING LOCALLY UP TO 0.80", WETTING
FOOTPRINTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE SMALL SIDE WITH PLENTY OF
DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE MIX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 80 38 84 38 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 80 44 85 44 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 83 35 86 35 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 78 44 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 83 40 87 39 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 79 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 80 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 86 38 90 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 89 41 93 40 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 73 41 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 55 83 54 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 80 49 85 48 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 44 81 47 / 0 0 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 66 42 71 45 / 0 0 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 29 78 32 / 0 0 10 5
TAOS............................ 81 38 85 38 / 0 0 10 0
MORA............................ 78 47 82 48 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 86 47 90 47 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 80 53 85 52 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 48 87 48 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 51 94 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 89 45 94 47 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 88 52 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 45 93 46 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 89 50 93 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 45 93 46 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 83 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 87 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 56 94 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 81 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 81 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 84 41 88 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 53 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 51 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 80 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 80 46 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 83 41 87 43 / 0 0 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 86 42 89 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 86 53 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 86 50 88 50 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 93 47 95 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 52 93 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 93 48 96 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 52 96 54 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 92 49 97 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 50 96 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 94 53 97 53 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 90 55 94 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 88 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-122-123-125.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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