671
FXUS65 KABQ 251820
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR LARGE VEHICLES PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NM
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE CANYON GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG 590DM H5 HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AND THE BOOTHEEL OF NM TODAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES 22F TO 28F ABOVE NORMAL. ABYSMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED BY HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW 10% WILL
MAKE HYDRATION A TOP PRIORITY FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS AGAIN. AFTER A
RELATIVELY CALM NIGHT IN WHICH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS (SEE ANGEL FIRE'S OBSERVED LOW OF 23F THIS MORNING),
THURSDAY SEES INCREASED WIND. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOCAL
COAST WILL OPEN AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/NM. THIS
FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE HIGH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED
WESTERLIES DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD TX
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN NM TO A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE UPPER 90S, OR EVEN 100F AT ROSWELL. EVEN DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP HUMIDITY BELOW 10% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH, WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
NORTHEASTERN, AND EAST-CENTRAL NM (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
A SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FROM A COLD FRONT BACKING SOUTH AND WEST THRU EASTERN NM. A
SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL YIELD STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, REACHING UP TO GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH IN FAVORED AREAS FROM TUCUMCARI TO PORTALES. AS THE FRONT
SURGES WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, STRONG
EAST CANYON WINDS WILL IMPACT SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE, AND DOWN TO
CARRIZOZO. EASTERLY GUSTS OF 40 TO 50+ IMMEDIATELY BELOW AREAS LIKE
TIJERAS CANYON ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WOULD PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE AREAS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE AZ BORDER FRIDAY, A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN ITS WAKE. NOTABLY ACROSS EASTERN
NM WHERE RECORD HEAT IN THE UPPER 90S IS FORECAST THURSDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY, A FULL 30F TO 40F DROP!
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS INTENSE FURTHER WEST WITH
FORECAST HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF EAST CANYON WINDS INTO SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE IS LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE COOL DOWN FRIDAY, A SECONDARY WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE FROM
THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE NOT A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE, IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN NM ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE CROP OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN NM
SUNDAY AS A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM
AZ ALONGSIDE GREATER MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS WEEKEND ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
LITTLE TO NO WARNING FROM PRECEDING RAINFALL AND STRONG AND ERRATIC
GUSTS. FORCING FOR THE GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM INCREASES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PATTERN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR PREVAILS AS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LLWS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS FROM KROW TO KCVN AND KTCC THIS EVENING TO
JUST PAST 06Z. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH JUST YET TO INCLUDE
AT KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HEAT CONTINUES TODAY ALONGSIDE VERY LOW HUMIDITY, BUT LIGHT
WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE THE
CONTINUATION OF RECORD HEAT AND EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE
FUELS REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN TERMS OF RECEPTIVENESS TO FIRE
STARTS AREA WIDE, AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN, EAST-
CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL NM WILL REMAIN MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE
SPREAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREDIBLY
SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BY 30F TO 40F THRU EASTERN NM ALONGSIDE
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT SURGES THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BRINGING STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS TO
SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE AND DOWN TO CARRIZOZO WHICH LOOKS TO LAST MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY IF NOT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG INFLUX OF
COLDER AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ABATE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE FIRE THREAT
DOES EVOLVE INTO A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY AND MORE OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 81 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 37 78 33 77 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 44 77 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 78 33 78 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 75 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 80 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 78 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 82 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 47 77 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 37 86 37 83 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 90 42 88 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 72 36 71 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 77 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 79 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 75 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 45 66 33 52 / 0 0 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 73 24 55 / 5 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 39 80 36 69 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 48 79 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 85 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 80 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 82 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 85 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 87 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 90 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 88 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 47 90 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 88 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 46 90 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 89 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 48 90 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 83 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 88 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 93 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 80 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 53 81 47 63 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 82 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 83 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 80 40 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 82 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 82 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 86 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 81 43 55 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 48 83 31 47 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 43 85 34 53 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 42 87 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 83 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 94 37 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 49 90 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 49 96 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 90 44 56 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 99 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 99 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 99 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 97 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 53 100 51 63 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 94 45 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 92 41 58 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-
121>126.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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